ECC Platform Library


Droughts, Livestock Prices and Armed Conflict in Somalia

Type of conflict main
Intensity 4
Eastern Africa
Time 2008 ‐ ongoing
Countries Somaliland, Somalia
Resources Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Conflict Summary Frequent droughts in Somalia put significant pressures on pastoral livelihoods. Droughts cause herders to sell more of their livestock than they would under...
Droughts, Livestock Prices and Armed Conflict in Somalia
Frequent droughts in Somalia put significant pressures on pastoral livelihoods. Droughts cause herders to sell more of their livestock than they would under normal conditions, resulting in plummeting livestock prices and deteriorating rural incomes. Widespread poverty and lack of economic alternatives, in turn, provide incentives for illicit activities and for joining armed groups such as Al Shabaab, which offer cash revenues and other benefits to their fighters. Especially the record drought of 2011 is believed to have considerably swelled the ranks of the militant Islamist group.
Conceptual Model

Climate Change

Climate change has contributed to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Somalia. The number of droughts has increased over the last decades and rainfall has decreased.

Intermediary Mechanisms

The majority of Somalians depend on drought-sensitive activities for their livelihood; livestock rearing is especially widespread in the country. In times of droughts, herders are forced to sell weakened animals that are at risk of dying. This leads to an oversupply of animals on local markets, and hence triggers a downward spiral in livestock prices and incomes for pastoralists. Trade barriers, that limit the export of Somalian livestock to foreign markets, also play an important part in creating this situation.

Fragility and Conflict Risks

Facing these difficulties, a number of herders start to engage in illegal activities such as charcoal burning or banditry. In order to make a living, some also follow rebel groups, such as the Islamist group Al Shabaab, who give them food and cash in return. Furthermore, economic distress and fear of violence and crime provoke tensions between communities.

Climate ChangeEnvironmental ChangeIntermediary MechanismsFragility and Conflict RisksSocial and Economic DriversMore frequent/intense extreme weather events lead to decreased water availability.Water scarcity undermines water-dependent livelihoods.Livelihood insecurity fuels grievances between groups.Livelihood insecurity augments the risk of crime, violence, and extremism.An increase in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods or droughts.More Frequent / Intense Extreme Weather EventsAn increase in the scarcity of clean water and/or an increased variability in water supply.Increased Water ScarcityA threat or destruction of livelihoods dependent on the availability of environmental resources / goods.Livelihood InsecurityNon-violent or violent tensions and conflicts between different societal groups.Grievances between Societal GroupsThe uptake of activities, such as joining extremist groups or engaging in illicit and violent activities, which increase the overall fragility of a region.Crime / Violence / Extremism
Context Factors
  • Trade restrictions
  • Water-stressed Area
  • History of Conflict
  • Inadequate Infrastructure
  • Lack of Alternative Livelihoods
  • Weak Institutions
Conflict History

Somalia is currently facing multiple intertwined security and development challenges. Frequently, local conflicts erupt between different communities striving for access to scarce resources and political dominance in a highly uncertain environment. Established in 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is struggling to establish functioning state structures against the background of serious drought, famine and armed opposition by the militant Islamist group Al Shabaab. Persistent insecurity in many parts of the country discourages investors and aid organisations, hampers Somalia’s development and perpetuates a vicious cycle of impoverishment and further violence.

High vulnerability to drought
This situation is aggravated by Somalia’s high vulnerability to droughts. Evidence suggests that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more severe in the Horn of Africa and especially in Somalia as a result of climate change. The number of drought events per year has significantly augmented in the past 30 years and rain events have tended towards instances of unanticipated and heavy rainfall (Hove, Echeverría & Parry, 2011). At the same time, drought-sensitive sectors such as livestock rearing and marketing make up for the livelihoods of roughly 60% of Somalia’s population and are a linchpin of Somalia’s economy. Livestock officially accounts for almost 40% of Somalia’s GDP and more than half of Somalia’s exports (Maystadt & Ecker, 2014). Formal mechanisms to cope with drought based on credit and insurance are mostly unavailable, public safety nets are absent and traditional coping mechanisms are often constrained by resource competition, violent conflict, and barriers to pastoralist mobility (Tran, 2011; Maystadt & Ecker, 2014).

Loss of livelihoods, illicit activities, and violent conflict
As a result, destocking of herds is the dominant and often only available coping strategy used by pastoralists in times of drought. Yet, this can lead to sharply declining livestock prices, as large numbers of households sell their animals on already strained local markets. The depression of livestock prices, in turn, reduces herders’ income and hence purchasing power, which is already diminished by drought-induced spikes in staple food prices (Maystadt & Ecker, 2014).
To avoid hunger and destitution, many pastoralists flee drought areas and become dependent on relief aid in camps, such as Dadaab in northern Kenya (IDS, 2012;). Lacking economic alternatives, others turn to illicit and sometimes violent activities such as charcoal burning, banditry and livestock raiding (see Piracy off the Coast of Somalia). These can provoke local conflicts and profit criminal organisations, which generate important revenues by taxing these activities (see Conflict between the Sa'ad and Suleiman of the Habar Gidir and Climate Change, Charcoal Trade and Armed Conflict in Somalia).
Most importantly, drought induced hardship is assumed to be an important factor behind the success of the militant Islamist group Al Shabaab. Evidence from the 2011-2012 famine suggests that an important number of drought-affected herders started supporting the rebel group in exchange for food and cash revenues (Heilprin, 2011; Maystadt & Ecker, 2014).

Bans on Somalian livestock imports
Drought-induced pressures on Somalian pastoralists are further compounded by a number of trade barriers. Indeed, frequent import bans by the Arab Gulf Countries, the main importers of Somalian livestock, limit the possiblities of herders to market animals outside of the local economy and thereby tend to aggravate drought-induced pressures on livestock prices. Furthermore, they reduce the purchasing power of rural households by depreciating the Somalian shilling and raising the price of imported commodities such as petrol, rice, sugar, and wheat flour. Following the outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in the Horn of Africa, Saudi Arabia imposed a ban on Somalian livestock imports between 2000 and 2009, which had a crippling effect on Somalia’s rural economy (Holleman, 2002; Maystadt & Ecker, 2014). Moreover, livestock trade in Somalia is challenged by poor infrastructures and access to markets, underdeveloped legal frameworks, high information costs, and high uncertainty regarding the origin and health conditions of traded animals (Ballantyne, 2014; Godiah et al., 2015).

Resolution Efforts

In response to these challenges, the FGS as well as the autonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland have initiated different projects, which focus on improving livestock health, disseminating livestock market information and facilitating livestock exports. However, the effectiveness of these measures is limited by important capacity constraints and as yet insufficient coordination at the regional level.

Adapting to frequent drought
Due to Somalia's fragile political situation, national drought adaptation strategies remain limited. In recent years, the country has profited from two regional projects advocating for pastoralist mobility across borders and the sustainable use of water resources in the Horn of Africa. These were funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (Hove, Echeverría & Parry, 2011). In 2014, the African Water Facility (AWF) offered a 3 million Euro grant to the Republic of Somalia to support the preparation of a water resources management and investment plan. The grant also promotes investments in multipurpose water uses, integrated water supply for rural populations and livestock, rural sanitation and hygiene as well as livelihood diversification through small scale high value irrigated crop production (AWF, 2014).

Overcoming trade barriers for Somalian livestock
In Somaliland, recent initiatives aim at improving livestock market information and animal health to overcome trade barriers and boost Somalian livestock exports. These include the definition of formal grading standards for Somalian livestock, the compilation of indigenous knowledge on Somalian livestock and the systematic dissemination of livestock market information to all relevant stakeholders, the improvement of veterinary and food hygiene surveillance services as well as research on importer requirements (especially in Saudi Arabia). They are accompanied by a set of guidelines and codes of practice, which help the enforcement of standards compliance in Somaliland and Puntland, as well as initiatives to establish institutional bodies responsible for quality control. Finally, a disease surveillance fund was set up in Somaliland to cover operational costs of rapid response teams and to procure laboratory equipment for early confirmation of trade-limiting animal diseases (ILRI, 2015a, b; Ballantyne, 2014).

Improving regional cooperation
These efforts are complemented by the Standard Methods and Procedures in Animal Health (SMP-AH) project, a regional initiative supporting the harmonisation and coordination of disease surveillance and prevention of trade-related transboundary animal diseases in the Greater Horn of Africa. The SMP-AH is coordinated by the AU Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR) and IGAD with financial support from the USAID East African regional office (ILRI, 2014).

Limited capacities remain a challenge
Locally, the improvement of health and certification standards and investments in livestock marketing infrastructures have contributed to growth in traded volumes, helped overcome import bans for Somalian livestock and generated employment and other business opportunities (IDS, 2012; Godiah et al., 2015). However, capacities of the evolving institutions remain limited. Due to financial and personnel constraints, regulatory and veterinary services are often unable to enforce adherence to quality standards and implement an effective health and certification system that is recognized internationally (Ballantyne, 2014; Mugunieri et al., 2008, 2012). 

Possible next steps
Building on past efforts, several measures have been proposed to further improve rural livelihoods and advance livestock market development in Somalia, Somaliland and Puntland. Firstly, pastoralist’s resilience towards ecological shocks could be improved by investments in rural infrastructures and the provision of social safety nets, weather insurance schemes, improved veterinary services and alternative income earning opportunities (Maystadt & Ecker, 2014). Secondly, investments in local climate research are needed to inform better responses and adaptation strategies to increasing weather variability (Ballantyne, 2014; Hove, Echeverría & Parry, 2011). Thirdly and most importantly, livestock market institutions need to be strengthened and livestock information dissemination systems need to be better coordinated across the Horn of Africa. Somalia is reliant on just a few livestock markets, mostly located in the Arabian Peninsula. Further cooperation with other countries of the Horn under the umbrella of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) could improve the credibility of local livestock certification and traceability systems and help Somalia diversify its export markets (ILRI, 2014).      

These measures will certainly not provide a definite answer to Somalia’s multiple security and development challenges, but they can help reducing pastoralist’s vulnerability to increasingly frequent droughts and thus also lessen their incentives to join armed groups such as Al Shabaab.

Intensities & Influences
conflict intensity scale
International / Geopolitical Intensity
Human Suffering

Environmental Influences
Societal Influences

Manifest Crisis
9 000
Violent Conflict Yes
Salience within nation National
Mass Displacement More than 100.000 or more than 10% of the country's population are displaced within the country.
Cross Border Mass Displacement Best estimate that more than 100.000 or more than 10% of country population are displaced across borders.
Destination Countries Ethiopia, Kenya
Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Resolution Success
Reduction in Violence There was no reduction in violence.
Resolve of displacement problems Displacement continues to cause discontent and/or other problems.
Reduction in geographical scope There has been no reduction in geographical scope.
Causal Attribution of Decrease in Conflict Intensity There has been no reduction in intensity
General opencollapse
Country Data in Comparison
ConflictNoData Created with Sketch.
Fault Lines Defining Conflict Parties
Purely Environmental | Cultural   ♦   Occupational   ♦   Economic   ♦   Urban / Rural   ♦   National / International conflict   ♦   Sub-national political

Participation Conflict Party     Conflict Resolution Facilitator
Al Shabaab
Functional GroupNon-State Violent Actor
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Government of Somalia
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleInternal National
AU Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR)
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Entry Points for Resilience and Peace Building
0 Improving state capacity & legitimacy Despite the various recent efforts to improve health and certification standards and advance livestock market development in Somalia, the capacities of evolving institutions remain limited. Therefore, there is still a need to ensure adherence to quality standards and implement an effective health and certification system that is recognized internationally.
1 Reducing trade barriers In an effort to reduce non-tariff trade barriers and boost Somalian livestock exports, recent initiatives in Somaliland aim to improve livestock market information and animal health. These efforts are complemented by the Standard Methods and Procedures in Animal Health (SMP-AH) project, a regional initiative supporting the harmonisation and coordination of disease surveillance and prevention of trade-related transboundary animal diseases in the Greater Horn of Africa.
2 Coping with uncertainty Recently, projects funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the African Water Facility (AWF) address issues such as pastoralist mobility across borders, strategies for sustainable water use, rural sanitation and hygiene, and livelihood diversification. Such projects aim to support drought adaptation actions that have otherwise been limited in Somalia.
Further Details opencollapse
Conflict Characterization
Character of the contested good Common-pool resource: No one can be excluded from use but the good is depleted.
Structure of decision-making power / interdependence Mixed: The abilities of parties to affect the environmental resource is mixed.
Broad conflict characterization Resource capture is not present.
Ecological marginalization is not present.
Data of involved Countries
Resources and Materials opencollapse
Conflict References References with URL


Adaptation & Resilience

All countries will need to adapt to some of the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change that are already unavoidable. Food security, livelihoods, water resource availability and public health are some affected areas. People living in poverty are more vulnerable, having a lower capacity to adapt. Thus, it is essential to promote resilience building. The adaptation and resilience aspects need to be mainstreamed into planning by policy makers and the private sector as well as integrated into development strategies.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods

Nature protection is most sustainable if it essentially contributes to the long-term stability of human needs. Today many regions around the world are confronted with increasing destruction of the natural foundations of life. The consequences of wide-ranging resource destruction are no longer regionally limited, but rather represent a global threat. Those affected are mainly rural populations, who find the sources of their income and the foundations of their way of life swept away. The depletion and destruction of natural resources goes hand in hand with decreasing agricultural yields and increasing poverty, which in turn forces the affected populations to deplete the remaining resources.

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Capacity Building

On the one hand, conflicts are caused by structural factors, such as economic and social inequality or environmental destruction. On the other hand, conflicts are fuelled by a lack of democratic structures, deficient mechanisms of non-violent conflict settlement, inadequate rule of law, the destruction of social and cultural identity and the disregard of human rights. Against this backdrop, development policies have been dedicated to a broad concept of security, which comprises political, economic, ecological and social stability. As a consequence, development cooperation agencies and actors have developed a broad spectrum of approaches for conflict prevention and transformation as well as for sustainable use of natural resources.

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Civil Society

Civil society is the first victim of environmental pollution, under-development and conflicts. Economically disadvantaged and politically marginalized population groups are particularly affected by violent conflicts as well as increasing resource degradation. Simultaneously, civil society is a fundamental pillar for implementing sustainable development. It contributes in many ways to strengthening conflict prevention and plays a significant role in the peaceful and democratic development of states. It must be supported to strengthen civil rights, adherence to human rights in general and democratic participation.

Climate Change

Climate change resulting from the emission of greenhouse gases represents one of the vital challenges for international environmental policy. Flooding, droughts, shifting of climate zones and increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events will have serious economic and social consequences for entire regions. The climate problem is also directly linked to the question of future energy generation.

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Climate Diplomacy

To address the challenges posed by climate change, a new profile of climate diplomacy is evolving. This utilises a full range of policies, including development cooperation, conflict prevention efforts, and humanitarian assistance, in addition to more traditional measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Moving from a risk analysis of climate-related threats to well-timed preventive action requires a greater commitment to integrating climate change concerns into development, foreign, and security policies. Examples include strengthening diplomatic networks, building new alliances with partners, and raising awareness – not only of potentially negative climate change impacts, but also of opportunities to embark on a sustainable transformation of our societies.

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Climate action entails an array of economic, social, political and environmental co-benefits. It provides an opportunity for economic growth and new jobs. Many investments can take into account climate considerations without becoming more costly. Further important co-benefits include: improved energy security, less local air and water pollution, health benefits as well as ecosystem and biodiversity protection.

Conflict Transformation

In order to overcome the structural causes of violent conflicts and thus bring about an improvement in the framework conditions for peaceful and fair development, it is essential to have long term and broadly planned peace development and peace advancement. Various governmental and non-governmental, national and international actors and groups are involved in these processes.

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Climate change and development are inextricably linked. Climate change endangers the development agenda and has the potential to reverse development goals. Furthermore, successful mitigation of climate change heavily depends on development choices around the world. Therefore, development strategies need to be climate-compatible to provide long-term success, and there are viable policy options that support this compatibility. Many mitigation and adaptation activities can present development opportunities to developing countries and avoid the lock-in to environmentally damaging technologies.

Early Warning & Risk Analysis

The reasons for the development and escalation of conflicts and the incidence of risks are multifaceted and complex. Simultaneously, the assessment of the specific causes in the form of risk and conflict analyses can contribute to a better understanding of these processes and make it possible to provide warning of negative developments, or ideally help prevent them. In the context of natural resource use, risks and conflicts have gained increasing attention in the past years. The debate on possible future water wars is merely one example.

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The well-being of individuals, communities and nations depends on the availability of energy resources. The gap between energy supply and demand appears to be growing, making the world vulnerable to serious economic shocks. At the same time, the burning of fossil fuels causing climate change is one of the vital challenges of international environmental policy. So far, only rudimentary approaches exist for shaping climate and energy security in a sustainable way. The components of a strategy that can contribute to reducing vulnerabilities related to climate change and energy policy include a greater role for renewable energies, the improvement of energy efficiency and a stronger decentralisation of energy supply.

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Environment & Migration

The economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change aggravate the breakdown of eco-system-dependent livelihoods and are likely to become dominant drivers of long-term migration. Natural disasters already cause massive shorter-term displacement and the number of temporarily displaced people is likely to further increase with climate change. For vulnerable populations in vulnerable regions, such as the Sahel zone or the Ganges delta, migration often becomes the sole survival strategy. In order to address climate-related displacement and migration successfully, knowledge of effective adaptation and an improved understanding of how environmental change affects human mobility is essential. 

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Climate finance, from all sources, plays a key role in supporting and enabling adaptation and mitigation action as well as climate and energy innovation. The Paris Agreement ensured that the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are at the core of climate finance architecture as entities entrusted with the operation of the Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC. Increasing climate finance from all relevant public and private sources is crucial. Furthermore, much needs to be done to redirect finance flows to sustainable paths, e.g. reducing fossil fuel subsidies, introducing maritime and air transportation taxes. The conditions for green investment in developing countries should also be improved.


Forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. Competition for forest resources triggers, exacerbates, or finances numerous crises and conflicts in tropical developing countries. Illegal logging and timber trade foster instability and sometimes violent conflict by strengthening illegal and armed groups, increasing corruption and exacerbating use and claim conflicts among local communities, the state and the business sector. Forests are a vital resource to poor people but they can also become areas of conflict. Sustainable management of forest resources is therefore key to preventing violent conflict over and within forests.

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Gender plays an important role as a category of conflict for many reasons. The interlinkages between gender, environment and conflicts are complex and much research is still needed. Existing insights suggest that conflicts may worsen gender inequalities that existed before the outbreak of violence. The unequal distribution of land property rights in many parts of the world serves as an example. Moreover, women (and children) are among those most affected by both violent conflict and natural disasters. At the same time, women carry much of the burden of trying to implement rehabilitation measures after crisis events.

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Land & Food

Increasing water scarcity, desertification and crop failures due to extreme weather events are becoming more and more of a threat to global food production. While the world’s population continues to grow rapidly, food production is unable to keep pace. Due to the global food crisis in 2008, the number of hungry people reached the symbolic one billion threshold for the first time – corresponding to about 16 percent of world population. Food insecurity may be a consequence or cause of conflicts. Violent conflicts often lead to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and means of production, as well as to the displacement of local communities.

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Minerals & Mining

In the past, the discovery and tapping of valuable or strategic resources like valuable minerals, oil and natural gas, particularly in developing and emerging countries, has often led to large scale environmental contamination and negative development. The "resource curse" of some countries shows that the wealth from resource yields is frequently unfairly distributed; instead of serving development it advanced the formation of corrupt elites and in some cases even led to conflicts and civil wars. Measures in various sectors and at all levels are important in order to use the potential of these natural resources in a manner that is sustainable and prevents conflicts.

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Private Sector

The spread of violent conflict not only affects people but also companies located in such regions. Destruction of investments and infrastructure, collapse of markets and trade partnerships, flight and expulsion of employees are phenomena of conflicts and environment-induced crises that directly affect companies in unstable regions. Almost all branches of the economy thus have a clear interest in a stable and peaceful environment for their activities. Conversely, the business sector plays an important role in the interaction of economic growth, social development and a healthy environment, all of which can advance peace and sustainable development. 

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Environmental issues have a significant security dimension. Access to, and overuse of, natural resources often play a key role in civil wars or other forms of internal domestic conflict. This is compounded by climate change and environmental degradation. Climate change is now widely recognised as a non-traditional, risk-multiplying threat that will have increasing security impacts. Key risks with possible implications for human and national security include water scarcity, food crises, natural disasters, and displacement. More preventive diplomacy and advocacy is needed to address the strategic implications of climate and environmental change.

Sustainable Transformation

Sustainable Transformation allows societies to profit from a growing, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive economy – especially in emerging and developing countries. This requires a higher up-front investment, but the benefits of a sustainable transformation in the medium and long term are significant. For instance, energy cost savings and reducing the impact of price volatility offer major incentives for deploying renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency. Such benefits exist in all key sectors of the economy.

Technology & Innovation

Innovations and technologies are already readily available and affordable but their global diffusion and uptake remains a challenge. Innovation and technology are crucial to achieving ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets. However, research and development often do not receive appropriate public support. Developing countries can leapfrog high-carbon industrialisation phases by adopting, deploying and improving existing innovations and technologies. For this, it is essential to minimise financial, administrative and political barriers.


The availability of freshwater resources in sufficient quantity and quality is essential for the preservation of human health and sound ecosystems. The use of water resources is also vital, however, for economic development: whether for agriculture, industrial production or for electricity generation. The world's freshwater resources are distributed very unevenly in terms of geography and seasons. In addition, water shortage is becoming more prevalent in several regions due to population growth, economic development, urbanisation and increasing environmental pollution. Thus, water resources can hold potential for conflicts between parties who have different interests and needs.

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The environment in Asia is already under tremendous pressure as a result of the unsustainable use of land, forests, water and even air in many regions. Climate change will only exacerbate these challenges. Rising sea levels will likely endanger densely populated areas, changes in the monsoon patterns can strongly impact agriculture, melting glaciers will increase long-term water scarcity, and extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and cyclones can pose further hazards.

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Central America & Caribbean

Natural disasters and water scarcity are key challenges for most of Central America and the Caribbean. These challenges will become even more pronounced as the climate changes. Weak resource and disaster risk management and land disputes pose additional security challenges for large parts of the region. Several countries of Central America and the Caribbean have limited adaptive capacities as they face political instability caused by high social inequality, crime, corruption, and intra-state conflicts.

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As one of the most developed and most densely populated regions in the world, Europe makes heavy use of its resources, resulting in difficult trade-offs and negative consequences for the environment and ecosystems. Land is used for settlements, agriculture and dense infrastructure, creating problems of soil degradation. Water resources are stressed due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Despite nature protection policies, Europe continues to lose biodiversity at an alarming pace. Some of these trends are exacerbated by climate change, which is expected, for instance, to lead to shifts in water availability.

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Global Issues

Resource scarcities, environmental pollution and climate change are not limited by national borders, but often have a transboundary or even global impact. These issues interact with political stability, governance structures and economic performance, and can trigger or worsen disputes and violent conflicts. Exacerbating some of these trends, climate change is likely to lead to the degradation of freshwater resources, declines in food production, increases in storm and flood disasters and environmentally induced migration. All these developments pose potential for conflict.

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Middle East & North Africa

The geopolitical position of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), its fossil fuel resources, high population growth and the political changes spurred by the Arab Spring all make the region one of the most dynamic in the world. Nevertheless, it is also one of the most arid and environmentally stressed. Dwindling water resources, limited arable and grazing land, high pollution from household and industrial waste, remnants of conflicts and increasing desertification are key environmental challenges.

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North America

Climate change has various impacts on the three North American countries of Canada, Mexico and the US. Canada and the US have well-developed adaptive capacities and foster the strengthening of capacities in other regions as well. With high per capita emissions, these two countries also bear a greater responsibility for a changing climate. Mexico has a sound national strategy for climate change adaptation, yet fewer capacities than Canada and the US. The poorer and rural populations of Mexico are especially vulnerable to climate change, due to an increased sensitivity and a lower adaptive capacity.

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Oceania & Pacific

In Oceania, population growth and economic development trends put a strain on oceanic and island ecosystems. Freshwater scarcity, overexploitation of fisheries, loss of land biodiversity, forests and trees, invasive species, soil degradation, increasing levels of settlement, poor management of solid and hazardous waste and disproportionate use of coastal areas are some of the problems. Climate change exacerbates most of these trends, while also raising questions about the future sovereignty of some island states.

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South America

South America has diverse and unique ecosystems and is very rich in biodiversity. Weak natural resource management, land disputes and extreme weather events bring about significant challenges for the region. While South America accounts for relatively few CO2 emissions, the changing climate will alter its ecosystems and greater climate variability will lead to more hurricanes, landslides, and droughts.

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Sub-Saharan Africa

In many African states, environmental security issues rank high on the political agenda. Throughout the continent, countries suffer from water scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty. These chronic and worsening resource scarcities have severe livelihood implications and are exacerbated by political conflicts over access to and control over these resources. Climate change may seriously threaten political and economic stability in Africa. It may also put a severe strain on the capacities of states and societies to co-ordinate activities, to communicate and to organize.

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