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Interoceanic Canal Dispute in Nicaragua

Type of conflict main
Intensity 2
Region
Central America
Time 2012 ‐ ongoing
Countries Nicaragua
Resources Forests, Ecosystem Stability
Conflict Summary On 22 December 2014, the Nicaraguan Government and Chinese Company HK Nicaragua Development Investment (HKND) inaugurated construction of an inter-oceanic...
Interoceanic Canal Dispute in Nicaragua
On 22 December 2014, the Nicaraguan Government and Chinese Company HK Nicaragua Development Investment (HKND) inaugurated construction of an inter-oceanic canal from the Caribbean to the Pacific. Environmental impact studies have been handled with great reserve. There have also been protests by rural people who will be displaced from their land. With this mega-project, Nicaragua seeks to compete with the Panama Canal and become the richest country in Central America.
Conceptual Model

Intermediary Mechanisms

The project threatens to displace 30,000 Rama and Nahua indigenous people and other rural communities living along the route to be taken by the canal. Additionally, environmentalists estimate that the project will endanger 400,000 hectares of jungles and wetlands.

Fragility and Conflict Risks

Internal opposition to the project not only comes from the indigenous and rural people to be displaced, but also stems from political divisions among the people of Nicaragua, and those who are apprehensive about the involvement of the Chinese company and the considerable rights they will be granted. Furthermore, Colombian and Costa Rican territorial interests are leading to tensions with Nicaragua. Costa Rica also fears the environmental impacts the project will have on its own territory.

Climate ChangeEnvironmental ChangeIntermediary MechanismsFragility and Conflict RisksSocial and Economic DriversInfrastructure development facilitates land use changes.Infrastructure development leads to environmental degradation.Changes in land use lead to migration/displacements.Pollution / Environmental degradation reduces available/usable natural resources.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources reduces available resources and ecosystem services.Problems related to migration/displacements lead to growing discontent with the state.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources leads to tensions between states.Construction of major infrastructure, such as dams, canals or roads.Infrastructure DevelopmentA change in the usage of environmentally relevant land.Land Use ChangePollution and degradation of ecosystems, such as coral reefs.Pollution / Environmental Degradation(In)voluntary long and short-term movements of people within or across state boundaries.Displacements / MigrationGrowing scarcity of essential natural resources.Natural Resource ScarcityReduced availability of essential natural resources, such as land and water.Change in Access / Availability of Natural ResourcesChallenge to the state's legitimacy, ranging from peaceful protest to violent attempts at overthrowing the government.Anti-State GrievancesTensions between states that may but need not escalate into overt violent conflict.Interstate Tensions
Context Factors
Conflict History

This is an old project, with plans dating back to the early 1800s, which could not be realized because of different economic and political factors, but also because of a conflict over maritime boundaries between Colombia and Nicaragua. Nevertheless, the arbitration awarded by the International Supreme Court of The Hague in Nicaragua’s favor in 2014 opened up opportunities to build the canal. Thanks to intervention by Chinese magnate Wang Jing, owner of concessionaire HK Nicaragua Canal Development Investment (HKND) in Managua, the mega-project began in December 2014 (Dachary and Arnaiz, 2014).

Controversies and demonstrations
Controversies and demonstrations against the project arose when the President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, announced signing of an agreement, with the HK Nicaragua Canal Development Investment company out of Hong Kong, to grant the concession for construction and operation of the inter-oceanic canal for 50 years, with option to extend for another equal period (Ntn24, 2014).

Territorial dispute with Colombia and Costa Rica
Disputes are due to Nicaragua’s foreign affairs and to tensions within the country. The former involve Colombia’s interests, which less than a year ago lost the vast zone around its San Andrés Archipelago and Providencia after the Hague’s arbitration award reduced Colombia’s national ocean territory. This maritime area is now administered by Nicaragua and is the zone granting access to the canal most directly from the Caribbean Sea (Dachary and Arnaiz, 2014). It is also strongly rejected by Costa Rica, which is Colombia’s ally, and historically has had conflicts with Nicaragua. Management of the San Juan River Basin was an issue of serious conflict in 2011 - 2012 (Dachary and Arnaiz, 2014).

People of Nicaragua's divisions
Moreover, ecologists of Costa Rica see the canal as a serious threat not only for Lake Nicaragua, but also because they fear environmental impacts on their own territory. Inside Nicaragua, reactions are just beginning to surface from diverse sectors, both in favor and against the canal. The People of Nicaragua have been divided over this for years: those who are on Ortega’s side and the opposition, although the latter are more fiercely opposed, because they know that, if the canal is built, Ortega would consolidate his power and control in Nicaragua for many years.

Economic and social implications
Opponents of the project claim that the Chinese company will have considerable rights and autonomy, so that critics argue that the country is being sold to a foreign investor (DW, 2014). Further, the project threatens to displace 30,000 Rama and Nahua indigenous people and other rural folks living along the route to be taken by the canal. These people have been protesting for the last three months against the project but have not gotten any of their demands granted (Armirola, 2014).

Longer than the Panama canal
In view of the lack of any publication of a current study, the arguments are based on data prepared by the Great Canal Commission that was organized by the Government of Nicaragua in 2006. The project was initially assessed at 18 billion dollars and is currently estimated at 40 billion (2006). The distance between the two seas is 286 km, including 80 km in Lake Nicaragua and the canal will handle ships up to 250,000 tons of dead weight, more than the current Panama Canal (Dachary and Arnaiz, 2014).

Environmental impacts
It is assumed that environmental impacts will be greater than those caused in Panama. Environmentalists and opponents to the canal have warned that it will endanger 400,000 hectares of jungles and wetlands and the livelihoods of indigenous peoples. The Cocibolca Group, comprising different environmentalist, legal and societal groups, has urged the National Government "to enforce precautionary and preventive environmental principles" to safeguard the country’s natural wealth. In this regard, losing Lake Nicaragua "is the worst risk this poses” because it is the country’s most valuable resource (Redacción 180, 2014). However, official sources have declared that controlled management of ecosystems is planned, with environmental restoration, preservation and development.

A potential source of economic growth ?
The Government expects this project to accelerate economic growth, increasing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the per capita GDP twofold, compared to optimistic forecasts for a situation without any canal and that it will generate significant additional investments accompanying this development; i.e., taking the GDP from 4.9 billion dollars in 2005 to some 20.8 billion dollars in 2025, compared to 11.8 billion dollars forecast optimistically for that year without the canal. Per capita income would increase from 857 to 2258 dollars in that same period, compared to 1285 dollars estimated optimistically without the great canal, all at 2006 prices (Dachary and Arnaiz, 2014). Economists like Adolfo Acevedo or Narciso Chavarria dispute these figures, arguing that economic growth depends on a number of factors as for example a stable exchange rate and trade balance. They expect an economic boom only in the construction phase of the canal and question the distribution of income that is generated (Suazo, 2013).

Popular protests
The time and place of the inauguration ceremony, presided by the Government and the Company in Rivas, was kept secret and only the official press attended. The zone was protected by security agents and Government employees to curb protests, while hundreds of rural people blocked the highway between Managua and the Department of Río San Juan, in southeastern Nicaragua, where the canal is planned to cross (Redacción 180, 2014).

Resolution Efforts

To date, only a strategy of containment and repression against demonstrators opposing the mega-project has been pursued, and there are no initiatives yet to constructively address conflicts.

Intensities & Influences
conflict intensity scale
Intensities
International / Geopolitical Intensity
Human Suffering

Influences
Environmental Influences
Societal Influences

Diplomatic Crisis Note of diplomatic crisis in case history, conflict purely verbal
Fatalities
0
Violent Conflict No
Salience within nation National
Mass Displacement Less than 100.000 and less than 10% of the country's population are displaced within the country.
Cross Border Mass Displacement No
Resources
Forests, Ecosystem Stability
Resolution Success
Resolve of displacement problems Displacement continues to cause discontent and/or other problems.
Reduction in geographical scope There has been no reduction in geographical scope.
Increased capacity to address grievance in the future There is no increased capacity to address grievances in the future.
Grievance Resolution Grievances have been completely ignored.
Causal Attribution of Decrease in Conflict Intensity There has been no reduction in intensity
General opencollapse
Country Data in Comparison
ConflictNoData Created with Sketch.
Fault Lines Defining Conflict Parties
Purely Environmental | Cultural   ♦   Occupational   ♦   Economic   ♦   Urban / Rural   ♦   National / International conflict   ♦   Sub-national political


Actors
Participation Conflict Party     Conflict Resolution Facilitator
HK Nicaragua Development Investment
Functional GroupCommercial
Geographical ScaleInternal International
Nicaraguan Government
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Nicaraguan civil society
Functional GroupCivil Society
Geographical ScaleInternal Grassroots
The Cocibolca Group
Functional GroupCivil Society
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Entry Points for Resilience and Peace Building
0 Environmental restoration & protection Authorities have declared that controlled management of ecosystems is planned, with environmental restoration, preservation and development.
Further Details opencollapse
Conflict Characterization
Character of the contested good Common-pool resource: No one can be excluded from use but the good is depleted.
Structure of decision-making power / interdependence Asymmetric: The power to affect the environmental resource is unequal.
Broad conflict characterization Resource capture is not present.
Ecological marginalization is not present.
Data of involved Countries
Resources and Materials opencollapse
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Topics

Adaptation & Resilience

All countries will need to adapt to some of the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change that are already unavoidable. Food security, livelihoods, water resource availability and public health are some affected areas. People living in poverty are more vulnerable, having a lower capacity to adapt. Thus, it is essential to promote resilience building. The adaptation and resilience aspects need to be mainstreamed into planning by policy makers and the private sector as well as integrated into development strategies.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods

Nature protection is most sustainable if it essentially contributes to the long-term stability of human needs. Today many regions around the world are confronted with increasing destruction of the natural foundations of life. The consequences of wide-ranging resource destruction are no longer regionally limited, but rather represent a global threat. Those affected are mainly rural populations, who find the sources of their income and the foundations of their way of life swept away. The depletion and destruction of natural resources goes hand in hand with decreasing agricultural yields and increasing poverty, which in turn forces the affected populations to deplete the remaining resources.

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Capacity Building

On the one hand, conflicts are caused by structural factors, such as economic and social inequality or environmental destruction. On the other hand, conflicts are fuelled by a lack of democratic structures, deficient mechanisms of non-violent conflict settlement, inadequate rule of law, the destruction of social and cultural identity and the disregard of human rights. Against this backdrop, development policies have been dedicated to a broad concept of security, which comprises political, economic, ecological and social stability. As a consequence, development cooperation agencies and actors have developed a broad spectrum of approaches for conflict prevention and transformation as well as for sustainable use of natural resources.

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Cities

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Civil Society

Civil society is the first victim of environmental pollution, under-development and conflicts. Economically disadvantaged and politically marginalized population groups are particularly affected by violent conflicts as well as increasing resource degradation. Simultaneously, civil society is a fundamental pillar for implementing sustainable development. It contributes in many ways to strengthening conflict prevention and plays a significant role in the peaceful and democratic development of states. It must be supported to strengthen civil rights, adherence to human rights in general and democratic participation.

Climate Change

Climate change resulting from the emission of greenhouse gases represents one of the vital challenges for international environmental policy. Flooding, droughts, shifting of climate zones and increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events will have serious economic and social consequences for entire regions. The climate problem is also directly linked to the question of future energy generation.

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Climate Diplomacy

To address the challenges posed by climate change, a new profile of climate diplomacy is evolving. This utilises a full range of policies, including development cooperation, conflict prevention efforts, and humanitarian assistance, in addition to more traditional measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Moving from a risk analysis of climate-related threats to well-timed preventive action requires a greater commitment to integrating climate change concerns into development, foreign, and security policies. Examples include strengthening diplomatic networks, building new alliances with partners, and raising awareness – not only of potentially negative climate change impacts, but also of opportunities to embark on a sustainable transformation of our societies.

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Co-Benefits

Climate action entails an array of economic, social, political and environmental co-benefits. It provides an opportunity for economic growth and new jobs. Many investments can take into account climate considerations without becoming more costly. Further important co-benefits include: improved energy security, less local air and water pollution, health benefits as well as ecosystem and biodiversity protection.

Conflict Transformation

In order to overcome the structural causes of violent conflicts and thus bring about an improvement in the framework conditions for peaceful and fair development, it is essential to have long term and broadly planned peace development and peace advancement. Various governmental and non-governmental, national and international actors and groups are involved in these processes.

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Development

Climate change and development are inextricably linked. Climate change endangers the development agenda and has the potential to reverse development goals. Furthermore, successful mitigation of climate change heavily depends on development choices around the world. Therefore, development strategies need to be climate-compatible to provide long-term success, and there are viable policy options that support this compatibility. Many mitigation and adaptation activities can present development opportunities to developing countries and avoid the lock-in to environmentally damaging technologies.

Early Warning & Risk Analysis

The reasons for the development and escalation of conflicts and the incidence of risks are multifaceted and complex. Simultaneously, the assessment of the specific causes in the form of risk and conflict analyses can contribute to a better understanding of these processes and make it possible to provide warning of negative developments, or ideally help prevent them. In the context of natural resource use, risks and conflicts have gained increasing attention in the past years. The debate on possible future water wars is merely one example.

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Energy

The well-being of individuals, communities and nations depends on the availability of energy resources. The gap between energy supply and demand appears to be growing, making the world vulnerable to serious economic shocks. At the same time, the burning of fossil fuels causing climate change is one of the vital challenges of international environmental policy. So far, only rudimentary approaches exist for shaping climate and energy security in a sustainable way. The components of a strategy that can contribute to reducing vulnerabilities related to climate change and energy policy include a greater role for renewable energies, the improvement of energy efficiency and a stronger decentralisation of energy supply.

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Environment & Migration

The economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change aggravate the breakdown of eco-system-dependent livelihoods and are likely to become dominant drivers of long-term migration. Natural disasters already cause massive shorter-term displacement and the number of temporarily displaced people is likely to further increase with climate change. For vulnerable populations in vulnerable regions, such as the Sahel zone or the Ganges delta, migration often becomes the sole survival strategy. In order to address climate-related displacement and migration successfully, knowledge of effective adaptation and an improved understanding of how environmental change affects human mobility is essential. 

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Finance

Climate finance, from all sources, plays a key role in supporting and enabling adaptation and mitigation action as well as climate and energy innovation. The Paris Agreement ensured that the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are at the core of climate finance architecture as entities entrusted with the operation of the Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC. Increasing climate finance from all relevant public and private sources is crucial. Furthermore, much needs to be done to redirect finance flows to sustainable paths, e.g. reducing fossil fuel subsidies, introducing maritime and air transportation taxes. The conditions for green investment in developing countries should also be improved.

Forests

Forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. Competition for forest resources triggers, exacerbates, or finances numerous crises and conflicts in tropical developing countries. Illegal logging and timber trade foster instability and sometimes violent conflict by strengthening illegal and armed groups, increasing corruption and exacerbating use and claim conflicts among local communities, the state and the business sector. Forests are a vital resource to poor people but they can also become areas of conflict. Sustainable management of forest resources is therefore key to preventing violent conflict over and within forests.

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Gender

Gender plays an important role as a category of conflict for many reasons. The interlinkages between gender, environment and conflicts are complex and much research is still needed. Existing insights suggest that conflicts may worsen gender inequalities that existed before the outbreak of violence. The unequal distribution of land property rights in many parts of the world serves as an example. Moreover, women (and children) are among those most affected by both violent conflict and natural disasters. At the same time, women carry much of the burden of trying to implement rehabilitation measures after crisis events.

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Land & Food

Increasing water scarcity, desertification and crop failures due to extreme weather events are becoming more and more of a threat to global food production. While the world’s population continues to grow rapidly, food production is unable to keep pace. Due to the global food crisis in 2008, the number of hungry people reached the symbolic one billion threshold for the first time – corresponding to about 16 percent of world population. Food insecurity may be a consequence or cause of conflicts. Violent conflicts often lead to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and means of production, as well as to the displacement of local communities.

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Minerals & Mining

In the past, the discovery and tapping of valuable or strategic resources like valuable minerals, oil and natural gas, particularly in developing and emerging countries, has often led to large scale environmental contamination and negative development. The "resource curse" of some countries shows that the wealth from resource yields is frequently unfairly distributed; instead of serving development it advanced the formation of corrupt elites and in some cases even led to conflicts and civil wars. Measures in various sectors and at all levels are important in order to use the potential of these natural resources in a manner that is sustainable and prevents conflicts.

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Private Sector

The spread of violent conflict not only affects people but also companies located in such regions. Destruction of investments and infrastructure, collapse of markets and trade partnerships, flight and expulsion of employees are phenomena of conflicts and environment-induced crises that directly affect companies in unstable regions. Almost all branches of the economy thus have a clear interest in a stable and peaceful environment for their activities. Conversely, the business sector plays an important role in the interaction of economic growth, social development and a healthy environment, all of which can advance peace and sustainable development. 

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Security

Environmental issues have a significant security dimension. Access to, and overuse of, natural resources often play a key role in civil wars or other forms of internal domestic conflict. This is compounded by climate change and environmental degradation. Climate change is now widely recognised as a non-traditional, risk-multiplying threat that will have increasing security impacts. Key risks with possible implications for human and national security include water scarcity, food crises, natural disasters, and displacement. More preventive diplomacy and advocacy is needed to address the strategic implications of climate and environmental change.

Sustainable Transformation

Sustainable Transformation allows societies to profit from a growing, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive economy – especially in emerging and developing countries. This requires a higher up-front investment, but the benefits of a sustainable transformation in the medium and long term are significant. For instance, energy cost savings and reducing the impact of price volatility offer major incentives for deploying renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency. Such benefits exist in all key sectors of the economy.

Technology & Innovation

Innovations and technologies are already readily available and affordable but their global diffusion and uptake remains a challenge. Innovation and technology are crucial to achieving ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets. However, research and development often do not receive appropriate public support. Developing countries can leapfrog high-carbon industrialisation phases by adopting, deploying and improving existing innovations and technologies. For this, it is essential to minimise financial, administrative and political barriers.

Water

The availability of freshwater resources in sufficient quantity and quality is essential for the preservation of human health and sound ecosystems. The use of water resources is also vital, however, for economic development: whether for agriculture, industrial production or for electricity generation. The world's freshwater resources are distributed very unevenly in terms of geography and seasons. In addition, water shortage is becoming more prevalent in several regions due to population growth, economic development, urbanisation and increasing environmental pollution. Thus, water resources can hold potential for conflicts between parties who have different interests and needs.

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Regions

Asia

The environment in Asia is already under tremendous pressure as a result of the unsustainable use of land, forests, water and even air in many regions. Climate change will only exacerbate these challenges. Rising sea levels will likely endanger densely populated areas, changes in the monsoon patterns can strongly impact agriculture, melting glaciers will increase long-term water scarcity, and extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and cyclones can pose further hazards.

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Central America & Caribbean

Natural disasters and water scarcity are key challenges for most of Central America and the Caribbean. These challenges will become even more pronounced as the climate changes. Weak resource and disaster risk management and land disputes pose additional security challenges for large parts of the region. Several countries of Central America and the Caribbean have limited adaptive capacities as they face political instability caused by high social inequality, crime, corruption, and intra-state conflicts.

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Europe

As one of the most developed and most densely populated regions in the world, Europe makes heavy use of its resources, resulting in difficult trade-offs and negative consequences for the environment and ecosystems. Land is used for settlements, agriculture and dense infrastructure, creating problems of soil degradation. Water resources are stressed due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Despite nature protection policies, Europe continues to lose biodiversity at an alarming pace. Some of these trends are exacerbated by climate change, which is expected, for instance, to lead to shifts in water availability.

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Global Issues

Resource scarcities, environmental pollution and climate change are not limited by national borders, but often have a transboundary or even global impact. These issues interact with political stability, governance structures and economic performance, and can trigger or worsen disputes and violent conflicts. Exacerbating some of these trends, climate change is likely to lead to the degradation of freshwater resources, declines in food production, increases in storm and flood disasters and environmentally induced migration. All these developments pose potential for conflict.

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Middle East & North Africa

The geopolitical position of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), its fossil fuel resources, high population growth and the political changes spurred by the Arab Spring all make the region one of the most dynamic in the world. Nevertheless, it is also one of the most arid and environmentally stressed. Dwindling water resources, limited arable and grazing land, high pollution from household and industrial waste, remnants of conflicts and increasing desertification are key environmental challenges.

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North America

Climate change has various impacts on the three North American countries of Canada, Mexico and the US. Canada and the US have well-developed adaptive capacities and foster the strengthening of capacities in other regions as well. With high per capita emissions, these two countries also bear a greater responsibility for a changing climate. Mexico has a sound national strategy for climate change adaptation, yet fewer capacities than Canada and the US. The poorer and rural populations of Mexico are especially vulnerable to climate change, due to an increased sensitivity and a lower adaptive capacity.

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Oceania & Pacific

In Oceania, population growth and economic development trends put a strain on oceanic and island ecosystems. Freshwater scarcity, overexploitation of fisheries, loss of land biodiversity, forests and trees, invasive species, soil degradation, increasing levels of settlement, poor management of solid and hazardous waste and disproportionate use of coastal areas are some of the problems. Climate change exacerbates most of these trends, while also raising questions about the future sovereignty of some island states.

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South America

South America has diverse and unique ecosystems and is very rich in biodiversity. Weak natural resource management, land disputes and extreme weather events bring about significant challenges for the region. While South America accounts for relatively few CO2 emissions, the changing climate will alter its ecosystems and greater climate variability will lead to more hurricanes, landslides, and droughts.

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Sub-Saharan Africa

In many African states, environmental security issues rank high on the political agenda. Throughout the continent, countries suffer from water scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty. These chronic and worsening resource scarcities have severe livelihood implications and are exacerbated by political conflicts over access to and control over these resources. Climate change may seriously threaten political and economic stability in Africa. It may also put a severe strain on the capacities of states and societies to co-ordinate activities, to communicate and to organize.

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