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Conflict between Dinka and Nuer in South Sudan

Type of conflict sub
Intensity 4
Region
Southern Africa
Time 1944 ‐ ongoing
Countries S. Sudan
Resources Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Conflict Summary The Dinka and Nuer, two rival pastoralist groups, have competed over grazing land and water for their cattle in the past. These clashes have usually taken...
Conflict between Dinka and Nuer in South Sudan
The Dinka and Nuer, two rival pastoralist groups, have competed over grazing land and water for their cattle in the past. These clashes have usually taken place in a local context without causing massive amounts of fatalities. However, in 2013, the dismissal of the former vice president Riek Machar, a Nuer, by the South Sudanese president Salva Kiir, a Dinka, functioned as a catalyst for mass violence, claiming more than thousand victims.
Conceptual Model

Climate Change

South Sudan has experienced progressive warming and more frequent droughts over the past 30 years.

Environmental Change

Adverse climatic conditions have amplified the existing conflicts over water and pastures between the Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups. Additionally, both ethnic groups have been forced to migrate during dry season, causing further resource conflicts and cattle raiding.

Intermediary Mechanisms

The civil war opposing South Sudanese separatists and the government of Sudan exacerbated tensions between the Dinka and Nuer, and functioned as a catalyst for mass violence, claiming more than a thousand victims.

Climate ChangeEnvironmental ChangeIntermediary MechanismsFragility and Conflict RisksSocial and Economic DriversChanging climate leads to decreased water availability.Extreme weather event is consistent with predictions regarding more frequent and/or intense extreme weather events.Reduced availability of water incites migration.Freshwater becomes scarce as an essential resource. Extreme weather event leads to scarcity of essential natural resources.Migration leads to conflicts between migrants and residents.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources leads to distributive conflicts between societal groups.A slow change in climatic conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation.Gradual Change in Temperature and/or PrecipitationAn increase in the scarcity of clean water and/or an increased variability in water supply.Increased Water ScarcityAn increase in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods or droughts.More Frequent / Intense Extreme Weather EventsA specific extreme weather event such as a flood or a storm.Extreme Weather Event(In)voluntary long and short-term movements of people within or across state boundaries.Displacements / MigrationReduced availability of essential natural resources, such as land and water.Change in Access / Availability of Natural ResourcesNon-violent or violent tensions and conflicts between different societal groups.Grievances between Societal Groups
Context Factors
  • Water-stressed Area
  • History of Conflict
  • Low Level of Economic Development
  • Political Transition
  • Weak Institutions
Conflict History

Cattle raids and conflicts over pastures and wells between the Dinka and Nuer, South Sudan’s two largest ethnic groups, have a long history, although, at times, relations between both communities have been marked by intermarriage and cooperation. Traditionally, cattle raids are a livelihood sustaining practice, which allows restocking herds after droughts. It has also an important cultural function, as it provides the means for young men to get married. Furthermore, access to water and pastures is central for local communities in South Sudan. During the dry season, different sections of the Dinka and Nuer have to migrate in search for wetter places, often infringing on land claimed by other communities, which gives both pretext and opportunity for resource conflicts and cattle raiding. Over the past 30 years this dynamic has been amplified by progressive warming and more frequent droughts in South Sudan (Richardson, 2011).

Civil war as an exacerbating factor
Traditional conflicts between Dinka and Nuer have also been exacerbated by the civil war opposing South Sudanese separatists and the government of Sudan. First, the war brought large quantities of heavy weapons to the area, which has made traditional conflicts more lethal. Second, the Sudanese government used the hostility between different South Sudanese groups as a counter-insurgency strategy against the rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), with the result that much of the killing during the civil war took place between the Dinka and Nuer.

Struggle over political influence
After the signing of the CPA (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) with Sudan in 2005, South Sudan became semi-autonomous and competition between the Dinka and Nuer took place over political influence (UCDP, 2015). Due to the fact that the Nuer supported the Sudanese government in the civil war, they were seen as not supportive enough of the new South Sudanese government. In 2013 the situation escalated after Salva Kiir, the South Sudanese president and a Dinka dismissed his vice president Riek Machar, a Nuer, on allegations of organizing a coup against him. Initially limited to fighting between loyal and mutinous soldiers, the conflict soon developed into a civilian massacre. Following his dismissal Riek Machar threw his support behind an armed opposition of Nuer rebels and became their leader. This sparked bloodshed between the Dinka and Nuer, which is considered by some to be the next civil war in South Sudan (Howden, 2013). The South Sudanese army played a central role in this conflict as it is responsible for the majority of civilian deaths.

The exact amount of fatalities remains unclear but the official number of 500 was dismissed by experts. Eye witnesses stated that the real number was in the tens of thousands. Additionally, around 200.000 people were displaced and are looking for shelter in camps set up by the UN and NGO’s such as Doctors Without Borders (Scheen, 2013; Howden, 2013; Thielke, 2014; Rémy, 2014).

Resolution Efforts

Wunlit Peace and Reconciliation Conference
The New Sudan Council of Churches (NSCC) has played a central part in facilitating reconciliation meetings between the Dinka and Nuer. In 1998, it held its first people-to-people event between Dinka and Nuer officials in Lokichokio, Kenya, which helped pacifying Dinka and Nuer relations in the eastern part of South Sudan, while fighting continued in the western part of the country. It was followed in 1999 by the NSCC sponsored “Wunlit Peace and Reconciliation Conference” gathering Dinka and Nuer representatives with the support of the SPLM/A and various South Sudanese intellectuals. Following the conference, inter-group violence between Dinka and Nuer ceased. Women and children who were abducted in earlier periods of fighting were returned to their families. Contested grazing and fishing areas as well as trading routes were reopened. In addition, border courts were established and violations of the covenant, which was signed by all parties at the conference, were punished. Furthermore, a guarantee of security was issued to allow people, who had been displaced during the conflict, to return to their homes (Bradbury et al., 2006).

The Wunlit conference is considered by many as an exemplary case of local peacebuilding efforts in South Sudan, as it succeeded in pacifying Dinka Nuer relations for more than ten years. Yet, waning support by South Sudan’s political elites made the peace process highly vulnerable and massive violence between the Dinka and Nuer erupted again in 2010 (Bradbury et al., 2006; Africa News Service, 1999).

The Bor Reconciliation and Healing Dialogue
In August 2014 women of the Nuer and Dinka communities met for the “Bor Reconciliation and Healing Dialogue”. This was the first time since the outbreak of violent conflict in 2010 that a peace conference took place. The conference was spearheaded by local pastors, supported by the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) and hosted by United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The meeting was described by a participant as an “amazing breakthrough […] at the people’s level, at the community level, and amongst communities” (Radio Tamazuj, 2014).

Since the conference there have been no reports of fighting between the two groups. However, it is unlikely that the conflict will be completely resolved in the near future, as several thousand Nuer are still looking for shelter in UN camps in fear of being killed by Dinka troops once they leave the camps.

Intensities & Influences
conflict intensity scale
Intensities
International / Geopolitical Intensity
Human Suffering

Influences
Environmental Influences
Societal Influences

Fatalities
1 000
Violent Conflict Yes
Salience within nation Regional
Mass Displacement More than 100.000 or more than 10% of the country's population are displaced within the country.
Cross Border Mass Displacement No
Resources
Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Resolution Success
Reduction in Violence Violence reduced significantly, but did not cede.
Resolve of displacement problems There is some success in accommodating the displaced.
Reduction in geographical scope There has been no reduction in geographical scope.
Increased capacity to address grievance in the future The capacity to address grievances in the future has increased.
Grievance Resolution Grievances have been mostly addressed.
Causal Attribution of Decrease in Conflict Intensity Decrease in conflict intensity at least partially the result of conflict resolution strategies.
General opencollapse
Country Data in Comparison
ConflictNoData Created with Sketch.
Fault Lines Defining Conflict Parties
Purely Environmental | Cultural   ♦   Occupational   ♦   Economic   ♦   Urban / Rural   ♦   National / International conflict   ♦   Sub-national political


Actors
Participation Conflict Party     Conflict Resolution Facilitator
Dinka community
Functional GroupCivil Society
Geographical ScaleInternal Grassroots
Nuer community
Functional GroupCivil Society
Geographical ScaleInternal Grassroots
New Sudan Council of Churches (NSCC)
Functional GroupCivil Society
Geographical ScaleInternal Grassroots
United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
United Nation Development Programme (UNDP)
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Conflict Resolution Strategies
Institutional solutions to reduce conflict
0 Reduction in conflict potential of scarcity through
better management institutions This strategy is applicable because improved management can reduce the scarcity of agricultural and pastoral land, which contributes to the conflict.
Reducing Fragility and Increasing Resilience
0 Strengthening of state power / ability to secure public order This strategy is applicable because South Sudan's inability to provide security has contributed to the conflict, as shown by the involvement of the South Sudanese army.
Economic and technological adaptation
0 Shift of livelihood bases This strategy is applicable because agricultural and pastoral livelihoods are being threatened by increased droughts.
Third Party Tools
1 Peacekeeping / Stabilization In 2011 the UN established the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).
2 Peacemaking / Mediation The Wunlit Peace and Reconciliation Conference as well as the Bor Reconciliation and Healing Dialogue were important steps in reaching a lasting peace in South Sudan.
Further Details opencollapse
Conflict Characterization
Character of the contested good Public good: No one can be excluded from use and the good is not depleted.
Structure of decision-making power / interdependence Asymmetric: The power to affect the environmental resource is unequal.
Broad conflict characterization Resource capture is not present.
Ecological Marginalization is present.
Data of involved Countries
Resources and Materials opencollapse
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Topics

Adaptation & Resilience

All countries will need to adapt to some of the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change that are already unavoidable. Food security, livelihoods, water resource availability and public health are some affected areas. People living in poverty are more vulnerable, having a lower capacity to adapt. Thus, it is essential to promote resilience building. The adaptation and resilience aspects need to be mainstreamed into planning by policy makers and the private sector as well as integrated into development strategies.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods

Nature protection is most sustainable if it essentially contributes to the long-term stability of human needs. Today many regions around the world are confronted with increasing destruction of the natural foundations of life. The consequences of wide-ranging resource destruction are no longer regionally limited, but rather represent a global threat. Those affected are mainly rural populations, who find the sources of their income and the foundations of their way of life swept away. The depletion and destruction of natural resources goes hand in hand with decreasing agricultural yields and increasing poverty, which in turn forces the affected populations to deplete the remaining resources.

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Capacity Building

On the one hand, conflicts are caused by structural factors, such as economic and social inequality or environmental destruction. On the other hand, conflicts are fuelled by a lack of democratic structures, deficient mechanisms of non-violent conflict settlement, inadequate rule of law, the destruction of social and cultural identity and the disregard of human rights. Against this backdrop, development policies have been dedicated to a broad concept of security, which comprises political, economic, ecological and social stability. As a consequence, development cooperation agencies and actors have developed a broad spectrum of approaches for conflict prevention and transformation as well as for sustainable use of natural resources.

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Cities

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Civil Society

Civil society is the first victim of environmental pollution, under-development and conflicts. Economically disadvantaged and politically marginalized population groups are particularly affected by violent conflicts as well as increasing resource degradation. Simultaneously, civil society is a fundamental pillar for implementing sustainable development. It contributes in many ways to strengthening conflict prevention and plays a significant role in the peaceful and democratic development of states. It must be supported to strengthen civil rights, adherence to human rights in general and democratic participation.

Climate Change

Climate change resulting from the emission of greenhouse gases represents one of the vital challenges for international environmental policy. Flooding, droughts, shifting of climate zones and increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events will have serious economic and social consequences for entire regions. The climate problem is also directly linked to the question of future energy generation.

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Climate Diplomacy

To address the challenges posed by climate change, a new profile of climate diplomacy is evolving. This utilises a full range of policies, including development cooperation, conflict prevention efforts, and humanitarian assistance, in addition to more traditional measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Moving from a risk analysis of climate-related threats to well-timed preventive action requires a greater commitment to integrating climate change concerns into development, foreign, and security policies. Examples include strengthening diplomatic networks, building new alliances with partners, and raising awareness – not only of potentially negative climate change impacts, but also of opportunities to embark on a sustainable transformation of our societies.

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Co-Benefits

Climate action entails an array of economic, social, political and environmental co-benefits. It provides an opportunity for economic growth and new jobs. Many investments can take into account climate considerations without becoming more costly. Further important co-benefits include: improved energy security, less local air and water pollution, health benefits as well as ecosystem and biodiversity protection.

Conflict Transformation

In order to overcome the structural causes of violent conflicts and thus bring about an improvement in the framework conditions for peaceful and fair development, it is essential to have long term and broadly planned peace development and peace advancement. Various governmental and non-governmental, national and international actors and groups are involved in these processes.

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Development

Climate change and development are inextricably linked. Climate change endangers the development agenda and has the potential to reverse development goals. Furthermore, successful mitigation of climate change heavily depends on development choices around the world. Therefore, development strategies need to be climate-compatible to provide long-term success, and there are viable policy options that support this compatibility. Many mitigation and adaptation activities can present development opportunities to developing countries and avoid the lock-in to environmentally damaging technologies.

Early Warning & Risk Analysis

The reasons for the development and escalation of conflicts and the incidence of risks are multifaceted and complex. Simultaneously, the assessment of the specific causes in the form of risk and conflict analyses can contribute to a better understanding of these processes and make it possible to provide warning of negative developments, or ideally help prevent them. In the context of natural resource use, risks and conflicts have gained increasing attention in the past years. The debate on possible future water wars is merely one example.

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Energy

The well-being of individuals, communities and nations depends on the availability of energy resources. The gap between energy supply and demand appears to be growing, making the world vulnerable to serious economic shocks. At the same time, the burning of fossil fuels causing climate change is one of the vital challenges of international environmental policy. So far, only rudimentary approaches exist for shaping climate and energy security in a sustainable way. The components of a strategy that can contribute to reducing vulnerabilities related to climate change and energy policy include a greater role for renewable energies, the improvement of energy efficiency and a stronger decentralisation of energy supply.

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Environment & Migration

The economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change aggravate the breakdown of eco-system-dependent livelihoods and are likely to become dominant drivers of long-term migration. Natural disasters already cause massive shorter-term displacement and the number of temporarily displaced people is likely to further increase with climate change. For vulnerable populations in vulnerable regions, such as the Sahel zone or the Ganges delta, migration often becomes the sole survival strategy. In order to address climate-related displacement and migration successfully, knowledge of effective adaptation and an improved understanding of how environmental change affects human mobility is essential. 

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Finance

Climate finance, from all sources, plays a key role in supporting and enabling adaptation and mitigation action as well as climate and energy innovation. The Paris Agreement ensured that the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are at the core of climate finance architecture as entities entrusted with the operation of the Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC. Increasing climate finance from all relevant public and private sources is crucial. Furthermore, much needs to be done to redirect finance flows to sustainable paths, e.g. reducing fossil fuel subsidies, introducing maritime and air transportation taxes. The conditions for green investment in developing countries should also be improved.

Forests

Forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. Competition for forest resources triggers, exacerbates, or finances numerous crises and conflicts in tropical developing countries. Illegal logging and timber trade foster instability and sometimes violent conflict by strengthening illegal and armed groups, increasing corruption and exacerbating use and claim conflicts among local communities, the state and the business sector. Forests are a vital resource to poor people but they can also become areas of conflict. Sustainable management of forest resources is therefore key to preventing violent conflict over and within forests.

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Gender

Gender plays an important role as a category of conflict for many reasons. The interlinkages between gender, environment and conflicts are complex and much research is still needed. Existing insights suggest that conflicts may worsen gender inequalities that existed before the outbreak of violence. The unequal distribution of land property rights in many parts of the world serves as an example. Moreover, women (and children) are among those most affected by both violent conflict and natural disasters. At the same time, women carry much of the burden of trying to implement rehabilitation measures after crisis events.

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Land & Food

Increasing water scarcity, desertification and crop failures due to extreme weather events are becoming more and more of a threat to global food production. While the world’s population continues to grow rapidly, food production is unable to keep pace. Due to the global food crisis in 2008, the number of hungry people reached the symbolic one billion threshold for the first time – corresponding to about 16 percent of world population. Food insecurity may be a consequence or cause of conflicts. Violent conflicts often lead to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and means of production, as well as to the displacement of local communities.

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Minerals & Mining

In the past, the discovery and tapping of valuable or strategic resources like valuable minerals, oil and natural gas, particularly in developing and emerging countries, has often led to large scale environmental contamination and negative development. The "resource curse" of some countries shows that the wealth from resource yields is frequently unfairly distributed; instead of serving development it advanced the formation of corrupt elites and in some cases even led to conflicts and civil wars. Measures in various sectors and at all levels are important in order to use the potential of these natural resources in a manner that is sustainable and prevents conflicts.

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Private Sector

The spread of violent conflict not only affects people but also companies located in such regions. Destruction of investments and infrastructure, collapse of markets and trade partnerships, flight and expulsion of employees are phenomena of conflicts and environment-induced crises that directly affect companies in unstable regions. Almost all branches of the economy thus have a clear interest in a stable and peaceful environment for their activities. Conversely, the business sector plays an important role in the interaction of economic growth, social development and a healthy environment, all of which can advance peace and sustainable development. 

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Security

Environmental issues have a significant security dimension. Access to, and overuse of, natural resources often play a key role in civil wars or other forms of internal domestic conflict. This is compounded by climate change and environmental degradation. Climate change is now widely recognised as a non-traditional, risk-multiplying threat that will have increasing security impacts. Key risks with possible implications for human and national security include water scarcity, food crises, natural disasters, and displacement. More preventive diplomacy and advocacy is needed to address the strategic implications of climate and environmental change.

Sustainable Transformation

Sustainable Transformation allows societies to profit from a growing, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive economy – especially in emerging and developing countries. This requires a higher up-front investment, but the benefits of a sustainable transformation in the medium and long term are significant. For instance, energy cost savings and reducing the impact of price volatility offer major incentives for deploying renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency. Such benefits exist in all key sectors of the economy.

Technology & Innovation

Innovations and technologies are already readily available and affordable but their global diffusion and uptake remains a challenge. Innovation and technology are crucial to achieving ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets. However, research and development often do not receive appropriate public support. Developing countries can leapfrog high-carbon industrialisation phases by adopting, deploying and improving existing innovations and technologies. For this, it is essential to minimise financial, administrative and political barriers.

Water

The availability of freshwater resources in sufficient quantity and quality is essential for the preservation of human health and sound ecosystems. The use of water resources is also vital, however, for economic development: whether for agriculture, industrial production or for electricity generation. The world's freshwater resources are distributed very unevenly in terms of geography and seasons. In addition, water shortage is becoming more prevalent in several regions due to population growth, economic development, urbanisation and increasing environmental pollution. Thus, water resources can hold potential for conflicts between parties who have different interests and needs.

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Regions

Asia

The environment in Asia is already under tremendous pressure as a result of the unsustainable use of land, forests, water and even air in many regions. Climate change will only exacerbate these challenges. Rising sea levels will likely endanger densely populated areas, changes in the monsoon patterns can strongly impact agriculture, melting glaciers will increase long-term water scarcity, and extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and cyclones can pose further hazards.

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Central America & Caribbean

Natural disasters and water scarcity are key challenges for most of Central America and the Caribbean. These challenges will become even more pronounced as the climate changes. Weak resource and disaster risk management and land disputes pose additional security challenges for large parts of the region. Several countries of Central America and the Caribbean have limited adaptive capacities as they face political instability caused by high social inequality, crime, corruption, and intra-state conflicts.

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Europe

As one of the most developed and most densely populated regions in the world, Europe makes heavy use of its resources, resulting in difficult trade-offs and negative consequences for the environment and ecosystems. Land is used for settlements, agriculture and dense infrastructure, creating problems of soil degradation. Water resources are stressed due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Despite nature protection policies, Europe continues to lose biodiversity at an alarming pace. Some of these trends are exacerbated by climate change, which is expected, for instance, to lead to shifts in water availability.

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Global Issues

Resource scarcities, environmental pollution and climate change are not limited by national borders, but often have a transboundary or even global impact. These issues interact with political stability, governance structures and economic performance, and can trigger or worsen disputes and violent conflicts. Exacerbating some of these trends, climate change is likely to lead to the degradation of freshwater resources, declines in food production, increases in storm and flood disasters and environmentally induced migration. All these developments pose potential for conflict.

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Middle East & North Africa

The geopolitical position of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), its fossil fuel resources, high population growth and the political changes spurred by the Arab Spring all make the region one of the most dynamic in the world. Nevertheless, it is also one of the most arid and environmentally stressed. Dwindling water resources, limited arable and grazing land, high pollution from household and industrial waste, remnants of conflicts and increasing desertification are key environmental challenges.

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North America

Climate change has various impacts on the three North American countries of Canada, Mexico and the US. Canada and the US have well-developed adaptive capacities and foster the strengthening of capacities in other regions as well. With high per capita emissions, these two countries also bear a greater responsibility for a changing climate. Mexico has a sound national strategy for climate change adaptation, yet fewer capacities than Canada and the US. The poorer and rural populations of Mexico are especially vulnerable to climate change, due to an increased sensitivity and a lower adaptive capacity.

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Oceania & Pacific

In Oceania, population growth and economic development trends put a strain on oceanic and island ecosystems. Freshwater scarcity, overexploitation of fisheries, loss of land biodiversity, forests and trees, invasive species, soil degradation, increasing levels of settlement, poor management of solid and hazardous waste and disproportionate use of coastal areas are some of the problems. Climate change exacerbates most of these trends, while also raising questions about the future sovereignty of some island states.

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South America

South America has diverse and unique ecosystems and is very rich in biodiversity. Weak natural resource management, land disputes and extreme weather events bring about significant challenges for the region. While South America accounts for relatively few CO2 emissions, the changing climate will alter its ecosystems and greater climate variability will lead to more hurricanes, landslides, and droughts.

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Sub-Saharan Africa

In many African states, environmental security issues rank high on the political agenda. Throughout the continent, countries suffer from water scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty. These chronic and worsening resource scarcities have severe livelihood implications and are exacerbated by political conflicts over access to and control over these resources. Climate change may seriously threaten political and economic stability in Africa. It may also put a severe strain on the capacities of states and societies to co-ordinate activities, to communicate and to organize.

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