ECC Platform Library


Yarmouk River: Tensions and cooperation between Syria and Jordan

Type of conflict main
Intensity 2
Western Asia
Time 1948 ‐ ongoing
Countries Syria, Jordan
Resources Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Conflict Summary Jordan, located downstream of the Yarmouk River, is dependent on cooperation with its upstream neighbour Syria. Over the course of the 20th century, Jordan...
Yarmouk River: Tensions and cooperation between Syria and Jordan
Jordan, located downstream of the Yarmouk River, is dependent on cooperation with its upstream neighbour Syria. Over the course of the 20th century, Jordan concluded several treaties with Syria which were however perceived by Jordanians as unbalanced.
Conceptual Model

Climate Change

The Yarmouk River has its source in Syria, flows to Jordan and Israel and joins the Jordan River downstream to the Sea of Galilee. It is predicted that Jordan’s fresh water resources could be reduced by 15% by 2020 due to climate change.

Intermediary Mechanisms

Due to the asymmetry of power between the co-riparian states, Jordan has had to agree to an imbalanced water allocation favouring Syria, and does not have the leverage and lacks the strategic position to enforce past treaties. Syria refused to provide Jordan with the water share agreed to in the 1987 treaty, blaming the reduction of the flow on a decrease in precipitation. Communities living near the Yarmouk River are especially disadvantaged.

Fragility and Conflict Risks

Although the intensity of the conflict has remained low, repeated violations of these agreements by Syria in terms of water-allocation have become unsustainable for Jordan. A reduction in water could further undermine agreements between Jordan and Syria and might increase tensions amongst the co-riparian states of the wider Jordan system.

Climate ChangeEnvironmental ChangeIntermediary MechanismsFragility and Conflict RisksSocial and Economic DriversChanging climate leads to decreased water availability.Infrastructure development changes the allocation of water.Freshwater becomes scarce as an essential resource. Water scarcity undermines water-dependent livelihoods.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources leads to tensions between states.Livelihood insecurity leads to interstate tensions.A slow change in climatic conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation.Gradual Change in Temperature and/or PrecipitationAn increase in the scarcity of clean water and/or an increased variability in water supply.Increased Water ScarcityConstruction of major infrastructure, such as dams, canals or roads.Infrastructure DevelopmentReduced availability of essential natural resources, such as land and water.Change in Access / Availability of Natural ResourcesA threat or destruction of livelihoods dependent on the availability of environmental resources / goods.Livelihood InsecurityTensions between states that may but need not escalate into overt violent conflict.Interstate Tensions
Context Factors
  • Power Differential
Conflict History

Since Israel’s independence in 1948, multilateral cooperation over the Yarmouk River and the other transboundary rivers of the Jordan system has been hindered due to the continuous tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbours. Owing to this lack of multilateral agreement, Jordan engaged in bilateral agreements with the two other co-riparians, Syria and Israel (see Jordan and Israel: water cooperation in the Middle-East). The present case study analyses the bilateral cooperation between Jordan and Syria which Jordan agreed to since the 1950s. Due to the asymmetry of power between the co-riparians, these favour Syria. Although the intensity of the conflict has remained low, repeated violations of these agreements by Syria in terms of water-allocation have become unsustainable for Jordan. As scientists predict that fresh water resources in Jordan are likely to be reduced by 15% by 2020 due to climate change, the current status quo could further undermine security in the region (Yorke, 2013).

Conflict Background
The Yarmouk River is a tributary to the Jordan River and therefore forms part of the Jordan System, which comprises Israel, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. The Yarmouk has its source in Syria, flows to Jordan and Israel and joins the Jordan River downstream to the Sea of Galilee. In the early 1950s, following the 1948 war which opposed Israel and its Arab neighbours, all co-riparians to the Jordan system started unilateral water-development plans. As these unilateral projects caused skirmishes amongst the countries, the US sent a mediator – Ambassador Johnston – to broker a multilateral agreement on water management. However, to date, no multilateral agreement has been signed (see Jordan and Israel: water cooperation in the Middle-East). Since 1948, Syria has refused to engage in negotiations with Israel (CESAR, 2004).
In order to manage the Yarmouk River, Jordan and Syria signed a bilateral agreement in 1953. Located downstream on both the Yarmouk and the Jordan River, Jordan is dependent on cooperation with its upstream neighbours (Brothwick, 2003).

Resolution Efforts

Signature of a bilateral agreement in 1953
Jordan and Syria reached a bilateral agreement in 1953 over the management of the Yarmouk River (Zawahri, 2010). Without specifying clear water allocation between both countries, Jordan and Syria agreed to construct several dams along the Yarmouk in order to store irrigation water and generate hydropower (Ibid.). This agreement was followed by the creation of the Syro-Jordanian Commission, which was endowed with monitoring and resolution mechanisms and with an arbitration committee to settle issues amongst the co-riparians (Ibid.).

New agreements and implications for Jordan
In 1987, the 1953 agreement was revised and a new treaty was signed (Zawahri, 2010). This new treaty was elaborated to specify aspects of the main dam of the irrigation project – the Maqarin dam, also known as Unity Dam and Wahdah dam – and also because Israel gained increased access to the Yarmouk River after the 1967 six-day war (Ibid.). In this treaty, Jordan was required to bear all the costs related to the dam, from planning to maintenance (Ibid.). This agreement also bound Syria to release 208 million cubic meters water per year to Jordan and allowed the former to build 25 dams on the Yarmouk system (Yorke, 2013; Turkish Review, 2014). Moreover, the agreement created a new commission – the Jordan-Syrian High Commission – with less monitoring and conflict resolution mandates than the previous Commission and deprived of any arbitration committee (Zawahri, 2010).

In 2001, a third bilateral agreement over the Yarmouk River was signed, in which the size and storage capacity of the dam were reduced (Ibid.). It was only in 2003 that Jordan and Syria reached a final agreement on a plan for the Wahdah dam at the border between Syria and Jordan and its construction started in 2004 (Oregon State University, 2008). Its construction was completed in 2005 (Haddadin, 2014).

Asymmetry of Power between the co-riparians
Despite the seemingly cooperative actions between the co-riparians through the signing of subsequent bilateral agreements, an analysis of the texts shows a significant imbalance in favour of Syria. Scholars explain that Jordan agreed to an “unfavourable water agreement” in 1987 due to the power asymmetry between Jordan and its “more powerful neighbour” (Yorke, 2013; Shami, 2014). In fact, despite its international support, Jordan does not have the leverage and lacks the strategic position to enforce the water allocation obligations Syria committed to (Yorke, 2013; Darwish et al., 2010). According to Haddadin, since 1954 Syria has only cooperated “intermittently” with Jordan, when it was in its interest (Haddadin, 2014).

Syria accused of treaty violations
In addition to the unfair treaty, scholars and newspapers have reported “persistent violations” of the bilateral agreement by Syria until today (Namrouqa, 2012; Yorke, 2013). Although the terms of the 1987 treaty entitled Syria to build 25 dams, as of today Syria has built 42 dams on the Yarmouk system (Turkish Review, 2014). The numerous pumps, which were constructed in Syria to store water from the river, have also contributed to reducing the flow (Zawahri, 2010). Even though Jordan has been asking Syria to remove its dams and wells “for years”, violations have continued (Darwish et al., 2010).  Syria refused to provide Jordan with the water share agreed to in the 1987 treaty, blaming the reduction of the flow on a decrease in precipitation (Ibid.). In April 2012, Jordan's water minister called once again “to end violations of the water-sharing agreements” (Yorke, 2013). Considering that in 1994 Jordan committed to release 25 mcm water/year from the Yarmouk to Israel, such violations put Jordan in a difficult situation.

Internal solutions to cope with water scarcity
Instead of a dispute with Syria, Jordan has been tackling the issue of scarcer water internally and through “peaceful means” (Haddadin, 2014). Jordan constructed a Water Conveyance Project from the fossil-water aquifer of Disi – in the South of Jordan – to its capital, which opened in 2013 (Shami, 2014). This project increases available resources in the country by approximately 12% (Turkish Review, 2014). In order to conduct its water projects, Jordan has been largely dependent on external assistance, such as USAID, the World Bank and Saudi Arabia (Strategic Foresight Group, 2010). In addition to this, the authorities have been fighting illegal wells to prevent illegal pumping of underground water, although Jordanian water-uses are already well below the level in other countries (Shami, 2014).

Impacts of treaty violations on the population and the environment
However, even though these solutions provide relief in the short-term, they are not sustainable in the long term. In fact, the current treaty violations by Syria have major impacts on the environment and on the population downstream. Jordan is already recognised as one of the world's most water-deprived countries, using 70 litres water per capita and per day on average whereas the average is 120-140 litres in Syria (Ibid.). The predictions of the Jordan’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, according to which Jordan's fresh water resources could be reduced by 15% by 2020, are likely to make the situation even more unsustainable in Jordan (Yorke, 2013).

Scarcer water availability could undermine existing agreements
In addition to the environmental emergency of the situation, a reduction in water could raise more tensions amongst the co-riparians and further undermine agreements between co-riparians. In fact, the decrease of water from the Yarmouk released by Syria to Jordan may prevent Jordan to comply with its commitments towards Israel, which could feed tensions amongst the coriparians (Zawahri, 2010).

In the literature, a certain number of measures have been proposed to remedy the situation, although these could only be implemented after stability has been restored in Syria. According to a number of scholars, there is a high potential for cooperation in the Yarmouk basin (Turkish Review, 2014). Including side-issues such as trade and transport infrastructure into a deal could lead to more cooperation (Ibid.).

More cooperation could also be achieved by putting an emphasis on the mutual interest of both countries to maintain their water resources (Yorke, 2013). For instance, a better management of the river upstream by Syria could increase the water released to Jordan and enable the latter to store water downstream, which could be then used to produce hydroelectricity for Syria (Turkish Review, 2014). In fact, this is critical, since – as argued before – Syria only cooperated with Jordan when the former has an interest in it.

Besides these technical measures, it is also critical to take into account the variations in precipitation and adapt agreements accordingly. Failure to do so could lead Jordan to blame upstream Syria for a reduced flow of water, as happened in the past.

Necessity to reach a multilateral agreement amongst all co-riparians
Finally, all scholars point out the urgent need of a multilateral agreement amongst all co-riparians to the Jordan system. After the failed Johnston plan, external efforts to achieve a multilateral agreement through cooperation on water sources were once more attempted during the 1990s by the Centre for Environmental Studies and Resource Management (CESAR), which was commissioned by Norway (CESAR, 2004).  To circumvent the problem that Syria and Lebanon did not want to participate in a process involving Israel, CESAR ran parallel processes for Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan on the one, and Syria and Lebanon on the other hand (CESAR, 2004). An attempt to directly link the two processes failed when Israel revealed that a joint meeting had taken place (CESAR 2004), but the parallel regional studies may yet facilitate future dialogue (CESAR, 2004). Distrust between Israel and Syria is the major factor inhibiting cooperation (Yorke, 2013). A new government in Syria after the end of the Syrian civil war may provide new opportunities for improved bi- and ultimately multilateral cooperation.
In summary, several bilateral treaties between Jordan and Syria have not enabled them to manage the Yarmouk River in a fair and sustainable way due to Jordan’s lack of leverage over Syria and the latter’s refusal to honour its treaty obligations  The civil war in Syria interrupted all negotiations over the Yarmouk River (Turkish Review, 2014). In the future, better management will depend on whether riparians agree on mutually satisfying strategies to manage the River. A lack of agreement would worsen environmental degradation and might increase tensions amongst the co-riparians of the wider Jordan system.

Intensities & Influences
conflict intensity scale
International / Geopolitical Intensity
Human Suffering

Environmental Influences
Societal Influences

Diplomatic Crisis Note of diplomatic crisis in case history, conflict purely verbal
Violent Conflict No
Salience within nation National
Mass Displacement None
Cross Border Mass Displacement No
Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Resolution Success
Reduction in geographical scope There has been no reduction in geographical scope.
Increased capacity to address grievance in the future The capacity to address grievances in the future has increased.
Grievance Resolution Grievances have been mostly ignored.
Causal Attribution of Decrease in Conflict Intensity There has been no reduction in intensity
General opencollapse
Country Data in Comparison
ConflictNoData Created with Sketch.
Fault Lines Defining Conflict Parties
Purely Environmental | Cultural   ♦   Occupational   ♦   Economic   ♦   Urban / Rural   ♦   National / International conflict   ♦   Sub-national political

Participation Conflict Party     Conflict Resolution Facilitator
Syria Government
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Government
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Jordan-Syrian High Commission
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleInternal International
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
The World Bank
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Saudi Arabia Government
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Entry Points for Resilience and Peace Building
1 Mediation & arbitration In 1987 the Jordan-Syrian High Commission was created and endowed with monitoring and resolution mechanisms to settle issues amongst the co-riparian states, but was deprived of an arbitration committee. Furthermore, external efforts to achieve a multilateral agreement through cooperation on water sources were once more attempted during the 1990s by the Centre for Environmental Studies and Resource Management (CESAR). However, distrust between Israel and Syria is the major factor inhibiting cooperation.
1 Treaty/agreement Jordan and Syria reached a bilateral agreement in 1953 over the management of the Yarmouk River, and was later revised in 1987. However, as a result of the asymmetry of power between the co-riparian states, these agreements favour Syria. Likewise, persistent violations of the agreement by Syria have been reported. Appealing to international courts in order to enforce Syria's compliance could help alleviate Jordan's grievances. In the future, better management will depend on whether the riparian states agree on mutually satisfying strategies to manage the river.
2 Improving infrastructure & services In order to tackle the issue of water scarcity internally, Jordan has constructed a Water Conveyance Project, which increased the available resources in the country by approximately 12%. Jordan has been largely dependent on external assistance from USAID, the World Bank and Saudi Arabia to carry out internal water projects.
Further Details opencollapse
Conflict Characterization
Character of the contested good Common-pool resource: No one can be excluded from use but the good is depleted.
Structure of decision-making power / interdependence Asymmetric: The power to affect the environmental resource is unequal.
Broad conflict characterization Resource capture is not present.
Ecological marginalization is not present.
Data of involved Countries
Resources and Materials opencollapse


Adaptation & Resilience

All countries will need to adapt to some of the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change that are already unavoidable. Food security, livelihoods, water resource availability and public health are some affected areas. People living in poverty are more vulnerable, having a lower capacity to adapt. Thus, it is essential to promote resilience building. The adaptation and resilience aspects need to be mainstreamed into planning by policy makers and the private sector as well as integrated into development strategies.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods

Nature protection is most sustainable if it essentially contributes to the long-term stability of human needs. Today many regions around the world are confronted with increasing destruction of the natural foundations of life. The consequences of wide-ranging resource destruction are no longer regionally limited, but rather represent a global threat. Those affected are mainly rural populations, who find the sources of their income and the foundations of their way of life swept away. The depletion and destruction of natural resources goes hand in hand with decreasing agricultural yields and increasing poverty, which in turn forces the affected populations to deplete the remaining resources.

Read more

Capacity Building

On the one hand, conflicts are caused by structural factors, such as economic and social inequality or environmental destruction. On the other hand, conflicts are fuelled by a lack of democratic structures, deficient mechanisms of non-violent conflict settlement, inadequate rule of law, the destruction of social and cultural identity and the disregard of human rights. Against this backdrop, development policies have been dedicated to a broad concept of security, which comprises political, economic, ecological and social stability. As a consequence, development cooperation agencies and actors have developed a broad spectrum of approaches for conflict prevention and transformation as well as for sustainable use of natural resources.

Read more


Sorry, no description found.

Civil Society

Civil society is the first victim of environmental pollution, under-development and conflicts. Economically disadvantaged and politically marginalized population groups are particularly affected by violent conflicts as well as increasing resource degradation. Simultaneously, civil society is a fundamental pillar for implementing sustainable development. It contributes in many ways to strengthening conflict prevention and plays a significant role in the peaceful and democratic development of states. It must be supported to strengthen civil rights, adherence to human rights in general and democratic participation.

Climate Change

Climate change resulting from the emission of greenhouse gases represents one of the vital challenges for international environmental policy. Flooding, droughts, shifting of climate zones and increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events will have serious economic and social consequences for entire regions. The climate problem is also directly linked to the question of future energy generation.

Read more

Climate Diplomacy

To address the challenges posed by climate change, a new profile of climate diplomacy is evolving. This utilises a full range of policies, including development cooperation, conflict prevention efforts, and humanitarian assistance, in addition to more traditional measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Moving from a risk analysis of climate-related threats to well-timed preventive action requires a greater commitment to integrating climate change concerns into development, foreign, and security policies. Examples include strengthening diplomatic networks, building new alliances with partners, and raising awareness – not only of potentially negative climate change impacts, but also of opportunities to embark on a sustainable transformation of our societies.

Read more


Climate action entails an array of economic, social, political and environmental co-benefits. It provides an opportunity for economic growth and new jobs. Many investments can take into account climate considerations without becoming more costly. Further important co-benefits include: improved energy security, less local air and water pollution, health benefits as well as ecosystem and biodiversity protection.

Conflict Transformation

In order to overcome the structural causes of violent conflicts and thus bring about an improvement in the framework conditions for peaceful and fair development, it is essential to have long term and broadly planned peace development and peace advancement. Various governmental and non-governmental, national and international actors and groups are involved in these processes.

Read more


Climate change and development are inextricably linked. Climate change endangers the development agenda and has the potential to reverse development goals. Furthermore, successful mitigation of climate change heavily depends on development choices around the world. Therefore, development strategies need to be climate-compatible to provide long-term success, and there are viable policy options that support this compatibility. Many mitigation and adaptation activities can present development opportunities to developing countries and avoid the lock-in to environmentally damaging technologies.

Early Warning & Risk Analysis

The reasons for the development and escalation of conflicts and the incidence of risks are multifaceted and complex. Simultaneously, the assessment of the specific causes in the form of risk and conflict analyses can contribute to a better understanding of these processes and make it possible to provide warning of negative developments, or ideally help prevent them. In the context of natural resource use, risks and conflicts have gained increasing attention in the past years. The debate on possible future water wars is merely one example.

Read more


The well-being of individuals, communities and nations depends on the availability of energy resources. The gap between energy supply and demand appears to be growing, making the world vulnerable to serious economic shocks. At the same time, the burning of fossil fuels causing climate change is one of the vital challenges of international environmental policy. So far, only rudimentary approaches exist for shaping climate and energy security in a sustainable way. The components of a strategy that can contribute to reducing vulnerabilities related to climate change and energy policy include a greater role for renewable energies, the improvement of energy efficiency and a stronger decentralisation of energy supply.

Read more

Environment & Migration

The economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change aggravate the breakdown of eco-system-dependent livelihoods and are likely to become dominant drivers of long-term migration. Natural disasters already cause massive shorter-term displacement and the number of temporarily displaced people is likely to further increase with climate change. For vulnerable populations in vulnerable regions, such as the Sahel zone or the Ganges delta, migration often becomes the sole survival strategy. In order to address climate-related displacement and migration successfully, knowledge of effective adaptation and an improved understanding of how environmental change affects human mobility is essential. 

Read more


Climate finance, from all sources, plays a key role in supporting and enabling adaptation and mitigation action as well as climate and energy innovation. The Paris Agreement ensured that the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are at the core of climate finance architecture as entities entrusted with the operation of the Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC. Increasing climate finance from all relevant public and private sources is crucial. Furthermore, much needs to be done to redirect finance flows to sustainable paths, e.g. reducing fossil fuel subsidies, introducing maritime and air transportation taxes. The conditions for green investment in developing countries should also be improved.


Forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. Competition for forest resources triggers, exacerbates, or finances numerous crises and conflicts in tropical developing countries. Illegal logging and timber trade foster instability and sometimes violent conflict by strengthening illegal and armed groups, increasing corruption and exacerbating use and claim conflicts among local communities, the state and the business sector. Forests are a vital resource to poor people but they can also become areas of conflict. Sustainable management of forest resources is therefore key to preventing violent conflict over and within forests.

Read more


Gender plays an important role as a category of conflict for many reasons. The interlinkages between gender, environment and conflicts are complex and much research is still needed. Existing insights suggest that conflicts may worsen gender inequalities that existed before the outbreak of violence. The unequal distribution of land property rights in many parts of the world serves as an example. Moreover, women (and children) are among those most affected by both violent conflict and natural disasters. At the same time, women carry much of the burden of trying to implement rehabilitation measures after crisis events.

Read more

Land & Food

Increasing water scarcity, desertification and crop failures due to extreme weather events are becoming more and more of a threat to global food production. While the world’s population continues to grow rapidly, food production is unable to keep pace. Due to the global food crisis in 2008, the number of hungry people reached the symbolic one billion threshold for the first time – corresponding to about 16 percent of world population. Food insecurity may be a consequence or cause of conflicts. Violent conflicts often lead to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and means of production, as well as to the displacement of local communities.

Read more

Minerals & Mining

In the past, the discovery and tapping of valuable or strategic resources like valuable minerals, oil and natural gas, particularly in developing and emerging countries, has often led to large scale environmental contamination and negative development. The "resource curse" of some countries shows that the wealth from resource yields is frequently unfairly distributed; instead of serving development it advanced the formation of corrupt elites and in some cases even led to conflicts and civil wars. Measures in various sectors and at all levels are important in order to use the potential of these natural resources in a manner that is sustainable and prevents conflicts.

Read more

Private Sector

The spread of violent conflict not only affects people but also companies located in such regions. Destruction of investments and infrastructure, collapse of markets and trade partnerships, flight and expulsion of employees are phenomena of conflicts and environment-induced crises that directly affect companies in unstable regions. Almost all branches of the economy thus have a clear interest in a stable and peaceful environment for their activities. Conversely, the business sector plays an important role in the interaction of economic growth, social development and a healthy environment, all of which can advance peace and sustainable development. 

Read more


Environmental issues have a significant security dimension. Access to, and overuse of, natural resources often play a key role in civil wars or other forms of internal domestic conflict. This is compounded by climate change and environmental degradation. Climate change is now widely recognised as a non-traditional, risk-multiplying threat that will have increasing security impacts. Key risks with possible implications for human and national security include water scarcity, food crises, natural disasters, and displacement. More preventive diplomacy and advocacy is needed to address the strategic implications of climate and environmental change.

Sustainable Transformation

Sustainable Transformation allows societies to profit from a growing, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive economy – especially in emerging and developing countries. This requires a higher up-front investment, but the benefits of a sustainable transformation in the medium and long term are significant. For instance, energy cost savings and reducing the impact of price volatility offer major incentives for deploying renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency. Such benefits exist in all key sectors of the economy.

Technology & Innovation

Innovations and technologies are already readily available and affordable but their global diffusion and uptake remains a challenge. Innovation and technology are crucial to achieving ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets. However, research and development often do not receive appropriate public support. Developing countries can leapfrog high-carbon industrialisation phases by adopting, deploying and improving existing innovations and technologies. For this, it is essential to minimise financial, administrative and political barriers.


The availability of freshwater resources in sufficient quantity and quality is essential for the preservation of human health and sound ecosystems. The use of water resources is also vital, however, for economic development: whether for agriculture, industrial production or for electricity generation. The world's freshwater resources are distributed very unevenly in terms of geography and seasons. In addition, water shortage is becoming more prevalent in several regions due to population growth, economic development, urbanisation and increasing environmental pollution. Thus, water resources can hold potential for conflicts between parties who have different interests and needs.

Read more



The environment in Asia is already under tremendous pressure as a result of the unsustainable use of land, forests, water and even air in many regions. Climate change will only exacerbate these challenges. Rising sea levels will likely endanger densely populated areas, changes in the monsoon patterns can strongly impact agriculture, melting glaciers will increase long-term water scarcity, and extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and cyclones can pose further hazards.

Read more

Central America & Caribbean

Natural disasters and water scarcity are key challenges for most of Central America and the Caribbean. These challenges will become even more pronounced as the climate changes. Weak resource and disaster risk management and land disputes pose additional security challenges for large parts of the region. Several countries of Central America and the Caribbean have limited adaptive capacities as they face political instability caused by high social inequality, crime, corruption, and intra-state conflicts.

Read more


As one of the most developed and most densely populated regions in the world, Europe makes heavy use of its resources, resulting in difficult trade-offs and negative consequences for the environment and ecosystems. Land is used for settlements, agriculture and dense infrastructure, creating problems of soil degradation. Water resources are stressed due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Despite nature protection policies, Europe continues to lose biodiversity at an alarming pace. Some of these trends are exacerbated by climate change, which is expected, for instance, to lead to shifts in water availability.

Read more

Global Issues

Resource scarcities, environmental pollution and climate change are not limited by national borders, but often have a transboundary or even global impact. These issues interact with political stability, governance structures and economic performance, and can trigger or worsen disputes and violent conflicts. Exacerbating some of these trends, climate change is likely to lead to the degradation of freshwater resources, declines in food production, increases in storm and flood disasters and environmentally induced migration. All these developments pose potential for conflict.

Read more

Middle East & North Africa

The geopolitical position of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), its fossil fuel resources, high population growth and the political changes spurred by the Arab Spring all make the region one of the most dynamic in the world. Nevertheless, it is also one of the most arid and environmentally stressed. Dwindling water resources, limited arable and grazing land, high pollution from household and industrial waste, remnants of conflicts and increasing desertification are key environmental challenges.

Read more

North America

Climate change has various impacts on the three North American countries of Canada, Mexico and the US. Canada and the US have well-developed adaptive capacities and foster the strengthening of capacities in other regions as well. With high per capita emissions, these two countries also bear a greater responsibility for a changing climate. Mexico has a sound national strategy for climate change adaptation, yet fewer capacities than Canada and the US. The poorer and rural populations of Mexico are especially vulnerable to climate change, due to an increased sensitivity and a lower adaptive capacity.

Read more

Oceania & Pacific

In Oceania, population growth and economic development trends put a strain on oceanic and island ecosystems. Freshwater scarcity, overexploitation of fisheries, loss of land biodiversity, forests and trees, invasive species, soil degradation, increasing levels of settlement, poor management of solid and hazardous waste and disproportionate use of coastal areas are some of the problems. Climate change exacerbates most of these trends, while also raising questions about the future sovereignty of some island states.

Read more

South America

South America has diverse and unique ecosystems and is very rich in biodiversity. Weak natural resource management, land disputes and extreme weather events bring about significant challenges for the region. While South America accounts for relatively few CO2 emissions, the changing climate will alter its ecosystems and greater climate variability will lead to more hurricanes, landslides, and droughts.

Read more

Sub-Saharan Africa

In many African states, environmental security issues rank high on the political agenda. Throughout the continent, countries suffer from water scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty. These chronic and worsening resource scarcities have severe livelihood implications and are exacerbated by political conflicts over access to and control over these resources. Climate change may seriously threaten political and economic stability in Africa. It may also put a severe strain on the capacities of states and societies to co-ordinate activities, to communicate and to organize.

Read more