Global governance of displaced and trapped populations, forced migration and refugees is not prepared for the numbers likely to manifest under a changing climate. G20 has responsibility to prepare, push for reform, and initiate annual reviews to enhance a humanitarian response to aid climate mobility.
The authors of this publication are:
Climate change is increasingly viewed as the world’s greatest global security risk. However, the UN Security Council (UNSC) has not consistently or systematically addressed climate-related security risks. In practice, the UNSC has predominantly focused on crisis management and hard security interventions but more recently the demand for investment in conflict prevention has grown rapidly. Supported by the confidence in global action on climate change generated by the Paris Agreement, there is a window of opportunity for the UNSC to take action on climate security. That is, the management of the direct and indirect consequences of inadequate or mismanaged climate mitigation and adaptation.
Changes in global weather patterns are now projected to have potentially devastating impacts on agriculture in the coming years and decades. The rising “double burden” of malnutrition already threatens to dampen global progress toward better health. Demographic change—a bulging population of youth in Africa and rapid urbanization—is creating opportunities for an economic growth spurt that will affect food demand and organized protests when food security is endangered.
Is the world facing an era shaped by disorder and by illberal actors? Several days ahead of the 53rd edition of the Munich Security Conference, the Munich Security Conference Foundation publishes the third edition of its annual report on key issues in international security.
Cities are on the sharp end of a range of risks from criminal violence, terrorism and war to demographic pressures, to climate and environmental change. Coastal megacities are especially at risk given the specific impacts of climate change they face, including accelerated global sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and severity, and destruction to critical infrastructure such as port facilities, rail and road linkages, and energy installations, all of which are amplified as urban populations become ever larger.
The potential links between climate change and conflict have received much attention in recent years, but there is little consensus on the issue in the relevant literature. So far, few methodological reflections exist in climate–conflict research. This is unfortunate given the tremendous innovations in methods the research field has experienced in recent years and the potential of diverse methods to shed light on different aspects of the subject matter, thereby increasing our understanding of potential climate–conflict links.
Climate change is the ultimate threat multiplier. It will aggravate fragility, contribute to social upheaval and even violent conflicts. The problem is the seven compound risks that emerge when the impacts of climate change interact with problems that many weak states are already facing. Single-sector interventions alone will not suffice to deal with the systemic nature of compound climate-fragility risks.
Allowing global temperatures to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial averages could cost the global economy $12 trillion by 2050, or 10 percent of the entire global GDP over that period, according to a new report from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a group of four dozen highly vulnerable countries.
In his dissertation, Tyler H. Lippert of the Pardee RAND Graduate School explains how the transboundary security impacts of climate change will both challenge and elevate the role of international multilateral institutions like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Water is a unique resource because of its multiple uses and key role for any economic development. In many shared river basins, water resources availability is becoming precarious, thereby threatening food security and fundamental prerequisites for development such as energy security. This paper analyses and summarizes several years of experience in German water diplomacy and develops a conceptual frame for designing strategies and narratives for preventive water diplomacy action.
Climate change poses numerous challenges for international river basins that are likely to intensify in the decades to come. These challenges will have significant socio-economic and political repercussions. Ensuring sustainable development and political stability in these basins, therefore requires effective adaptation to the impacts of climate change. To overcome existing shortcomings and strengthen adaptive capacities, the water (cooperation) and climate communities should engage proactively and seek to create synergies between their instruments. Foreign policymakers should support them in this process.
This timely book offers a unique interdisciplinary inquiry into the prospects of different political narratives on climate migration. It identifies the essential angles on climate migration – the humanitarian narrative, the migration narrative and the climate change narrative – and assesses their prospects. The author contends that although such arguments will influence global governance, they will not necessarily achieve what advocates hope for.