Climate change, civil conflict, and violent extremism are among the most significant threats to global human development, peace, and security. UN-led plans to address all three require immediate action to prevent future crises, yet crucial investments may not yield tangible results for years to come—well beyond democratic term limits. Jonathan Rozen reflects on tensions between long-term planning and short-term action.
Resilience is a widely used concept among development, environmental, security and peacebuilding organisations. However, it has rarely been applied together with the concept of environmental security, despite the obvious ways in which the concepts complement each other. These concepts can be jointly applied in the peacebuilding sector. Environmental security sharpens the scope of resilience, while resilience allows for taking issues into account that a traditional environmental security perspective might miss.


The epicenter of violence in the unstable country of Mali has historically been in the north, a contested region from where Touareg separatist and jihadist armed groups launched an insurgency against the state in 2012. But over the last two years, there has been a marked shift in communal and anti-state violence to the central region, and climate change may have played a role.
FAO warns that without urgent intervention, 20 million people will starve to death over the next six months in South Sudan, Somalia, north-eastern Nigeria and Yemen. UNICEF reports that 22 million children across these countries “are hungry, sick, displaced and out of school,” mainly because of conflict. Climate change and water insecurity are major challenges to ending hunger and achieving sustainable agriculture, outside of conflict, a primary driver.
As the climate changes, so too do the conditions in which non-state armed groups operate. The complex risks presented by conflicts, climate change and increasingly fragile geophysical and socio-political conditions can contribute to the emergence and growth of non-state armed groups. Our new report examines the links between climate-fragility risks and non-state armed groups.
Multiple stressors converge on the Lake Chad region. Unemployment, depleting resources, poverty and conflict interact with climate change. Prolonged severe droughts have contributed to a massive shrinking of Lake Chad, a main source of livelihood for millions of inhabitants. The resulting livelihood insecurity and extreme poverty has exacerbated tensions between pastoralists, farmers and fishers. This contributes to the increased risk of recruitment by non-state armed groups such as Boko Haram, engagement in illicit employment, armed conflict and major internal as well as cross-border displacement...

This week, newly minted Secretary of Defense James Mattis j
Cities are already facing the brunt of a range of interacting risks from criminal violence, terrorism and war to demographic pressures, to climate and environmental change. Coastal megacities are especially at risk given the specific impacts of climate change they face, such as sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and severity, and destruction to infrastructure such as ports, rail and road networks. These risks are amplified as urban populations become ever larger.
While all Americans know water is a precious resource, most of us take it for granted – until it’s not there when we need it. Three authors from the Wilson Center argue that water scarcity is undermining economic growth, limiting food production, and becoming an increasing threat to peace and security.
The science is clear: To prevent major disruption, the global community must take steps to address climate change. But it is also increasingly clear that efforts to address climate change can have major effects on societies that are not always anticipated.
On 19 January 2017, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan hosted a G7 roundtable seminar with international experts and country representatives to follow up on the group's efforts to address climate-fragility risks.
In his dissertation, Tyler H. Lippert of the Pardee RAND Graduate School explains how the transboundary security impacts of climate change will both challenge and elevate the role of international multilateral institutions like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
This paper provides some initial reflections on climate-fragility risks for Japan. To complement this analysis, the paper also presents findings from a perception survey on climate-fragility risk conducted among Japanese professionals and practitioners outlining observations regarding the level of awareness around climate-fragility risks and the efficacy of policies to address climate-fragility risks.
The publication is also available in Japanese:
Human security will be progressively threatened by climate change, consequently development cooperation agencies such as JICA need to adopt approaches to strengthen resilience to climate-fragility risks. Currently, JICA’s approaches to climate change adaptation and peacebuilding are not connected enough. There is a need for integrating assessments of climate risk and peacebuilding impacts as well as science, engineering and socio-economic approaches.