Changes in global weather patterns are now projected to have potentially devastating impacts on agriculture in the coming years and decades. The rising “double burden” of malnutrition already threatens to dampen global progress toward better health. Demographic change—a bulging population of youth in Africa and rapid urbanization—is creating opportunities for an economic growth spurt that will affect food demand and organized protests when food security is endangered.
Is the world facing an era shaped by disorder and by illberal actors? Several days ahead of the 53rd edition of the Munich Security Conference, the Munich Security Conference Foundation publishes the third edition of its annual report on key issues in international security.
In an article recently published in Regional Environmental Change, Uche Okpara, Lindsay Stringer, and Andrews Dougill discuss the development and application of a climate-water conflict vulnerability index to assess communities along the southeastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Congo.
Cities are on the sharp end of a range of risks from criminal violence, terrorism and war to demographic pressures, to climate and environmental change. Coastal megacities are especially at risk given the specific impacts of climate change they face, including accelerated global sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and severity, and destruction to critical infrastructure such as port facilities, rail and road linkages, and energy installations, all of which are amplified as urban populations become ever larger.
The potential links between climate change and conflict have received much attention in recent years, but there is little consensus on the issue in the relevant literature. So far, few methodological reflections exist in climate–conflict research. This is unfortunate given the tremendous innovations in methods the research field has experienced in recent years and the potential of diverse methods to shed light on different aspects of the subject matter, thereby increasing our understanding of potential climate–conflict links.
To facilitate a broader discussion on climate-fragility risks in Japan and reflect and discuss the findings of the G7 report and its implications and relevance for Japan, adelphi and the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies jointly organised two expert workshops in June 2016. The first workshop took place on 14 June 2016 and brought together 31 Japanese and international experts as well as government representatives. It was followed by a workshop on 16 June 2016 with 15 participants from Japanese civil society. The workshops focused on two central topics:
Climate change is the ultimate threat multiplier. It will aggravate fragility, contribute to social upheaval and even violent conflicts. The problem is the seven compound risks that emerge when the impacts of climate change interact with problems that many weak states are already facing. Single-sector interventions alone will not suffice to deal with the systemic nature of compound climate-fragility risks.
Allowing global temperatures to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial averages could cost the global economy $12 trillion by 2050, or 10 percent of the entire global GDP over that period, according to a new report from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a group of four dozen highly vulnerable countries.
In his dissertation, Tyler H. Lippert of the Pardee RAND Graduate School explains how the transboundary security impacts of climate change will both challenge and elevate the role of international multilateral institutions like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Water is a unique resource because of its multiple uses and key role for any economic development. In many shared river basins, water resources availability is becoming precarious, thereby threatening food security and fundamental prerequisites for development such as energy security. This paper analyses and summarizes several years of experience in German water diplomacy and develops a conceptual frame for designing strategies and narratives for preventive water diplomacy action.
This paper provides some initial reflections on climate-fragility risks for Japan. To complement this analysis, the paper also presents findings from a perception survey on climate-fragility risk conducted among Japanese professionals and practitioners outlining observations regarding the level of awareness around climate-fragility risks and the efficacy of policies to address climate-fragility risks.
The publication is also available in Japanese:
Human security will be progressively threatened by climate change, consequently development cooperation agencies such as JICA need to adopt approaches to strengthen resilience to climate-fragility risks. Currently, JICA’s approaches to climate change adaptation and peacebuilding are not connected enough. There is a need for integrating assessments of climate risk and peacebuilding impacts as well as science, engineering and socio-economic approaches.