In the coming decades, climate change will expose hundreds of millions of people to its impacts. As shown by the latest research (see the summary in the second volume of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change (AR5)), some parts of the world will be more vulnerable than others to these impacts. Aside from the increase in average temperature and changes in precipitation, many areas will have to deal with extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, droughts and floods, increasingly becoming the norm. This, in turn, leads to serious implications for water supplies, crops, health, and economic growth. Some areas will be relatively less exposed to these pressures due to their geographic location or ability to respond and adapt better. Given that climate change is and will continue to impact regions in different ways, the migration of individuals and communities from the areas most exposed to climate change impacts needs to be considered.
Impacts of climate change and migration
Climate change will make some areas less habitable. It is not uncommon to hear predictions that there will be mass migrations away from the areas most affected by climate impacts. These predictions focus on “climate refugees” who leave their homeland for more hospitable areas with less exposure to drought and other climate extremes. Such migrations can sometimes cause conflicts between locals as they vie for increasingly scarce arable land (Reuveny, 2007; Ghimire et al. 2015)[1]. Millions of people are expected to migrate from South to North, from coasts exposed to sea level rise to higher plains, and from increasingly arid areas to more fertile ones. According to the International Organization of Migration[2], there may be between 25 million and one billion climate migrants over the next 40 years. The article “Accommodating Migration to Promote Adaptation to Climate Change” (by Barnett and Webber) provides an overview of research on climate migration dating from 1988 when climate change was first identified as a possible driver of migration. However, it is important to avoid depicting the migration of people due to climate change as a disaster. To this end, we need to better understand not only the causes, but the whole migration process. This includes understanding that climate change induced poverty might even reduce some forms of international migration or at least limit it to certain sections of the population, ironically, those better off.
For the complete article, please see Carlo Carraro's blog.
