ECC Platform Library


Playing the Climate Card: Strategy for the New Diplomacy - Letter from Washington

12 October, 2018
Paul Joffe

U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.
U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. | © Andy Feliciotti/Unsplash

Changes are occurring that could make climate action a driver of the domestic agenda for economic and social progress and for international cooperation.  With the help of market forces and technological advances, the tide is moving toward climate action.  Paul Joffe argues that a key to success is a strategy that draws public support and makes climate policy a force in a larger industrial renaissance.

[Paul Joffe is Sr. Fellow at the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and former Sr. Foreign Policy Counsel at the World Resources Institute.  The views stated here are solely those of the author.]


Dear Colleagues,

This letter continues our previous exchange, and responds to “Winning the Blue Sky Battle” and its call for a just energy transition as essential for effective climate action.  I write to suggest a perspective from Washington on this theme.

According to many commentators, the U.S. is contributing to the disintegration of world order. But the global effort to address climate change signals that world order has unexpected sources of resilience.

In the U.S., though public opinion does not support U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, special interests work for inaction. But changes are occurring that could make climate action a driver of the domestic agenda for economic and social progress and for international cooperation. Nature is the dealer, and in a newly realistic diplomacy, every player will have to think about how to play a hand with the climate card. 

“What are we going to do about the United States?”

Aging activists reading this may still have their T-shirts with those words across the front.  In the run-up to the 2002 Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development, a UN official speaking confidentially to another diplomat, was caught on a hot mic wondering how to deal with the foot dragging of the U.S. on climate change and other issues.  It might be thought that we are watching a rerun, but actually the script has changed.

It used to be argued that the major fossil fuels were cheap and environmental action was contrary to economic goals. But it is now evident that climate action is the path to sustainable growth and that the big driver of coal decline in the U.S. has been market forces, including cheaper natural gas and the falling price of renewables.  

If the old, special interests have their way, policies to move forward will be delayed, with increasing damage from climate change and loss of competitiveness in new technologies.  Alternatively, we can use climate action as an instrument of innovation and reindustrialization.  This is where transition strategy comes in, especially the point made in your analysis regarding the need to integrate energy with broader policy.  We need to make the problem bigger in order to solve it.

Employment security and democratic governance as national commitments

Fallout from an energy transition developing over decades is part of a broader industrial transformation across regions and industries driven by far-reaching forces such as changes in technology, trade, finance, and the structure of work. The result has been destruction in the U.S. of the post-war system of employment security. With respect to the decline of the U.S. coal industry, we should address impacts on employment whatever the source, including the impacts of market forces and automation, as well as any impacts of policy. But the focus should also be economy-wide. Industries and employment opportunities are intertwined. Moreover, it will be easier to develop support for climate action if it is understood that job security is as much a national commitment as social security.

A serious commitment to employment security would extend from macroeconomic policy to specific initiatives such as nationwide infrastructure and community development projects, wage insurance, training, job guarantees, and worker rights. Innovation and jobs in the industries needed to prevent climate damage would be an important part of this effort. Call it a revived and more ambitious “Treaty of Detroit”, bringing together industry, labor, and government, reenergizing work on the urgent business of the country.

Equally important when it comes to the question of “what are we going to do about the United States,” climate scientist James Hansen argues that strengthening democratic governance is a prerequisite for climate action. There is support for curbing carbon emissions, enthusiasm for renewable energy, and widespread civil society and state and local action. However, to help translate opinion into national action, the country needs to renew its democracy by protecting voting rights, ending gerrymandering, and curbing campaign finance abuses.

The International Order – the end or a new beginning?

There is a lot of worry about the end of the international order that has helped foster peace and prosperity for 70 years.  But climate action may contribute to a return to cooperation.  As is the case domestically, not all the international cards have been played yet.

The late diplomatic historian, Ernest May and his co-author, Zhou Hong, argued that accommodation between the U.S. and China is possible because nations have more to be gained by cooperation on issues like climate change than by returning to the days when great powers fought over territory.  Of course, there is a contest over what view of the national interest will prevail.  Some suggest that the U.S. has switched sides and is working more to promote disruption than multilateral cooperation. But just as the economic tide is moving toward climate action, there are strong forces driving cooperation.

In discussing the American stance, reference is often made to history, whether to periods of leadership in multilateralism after 1945 or isolationism before the war.  It is worth considering an even earlier era.  Jack Rakove, a scholar of the American founding, says that a key argument of James Madison for creating the United States was the need to deal with collective action problems involving cooperation among states. The climate issue is a prime example of today’s collective action challenges, but no one is saying the political problem in the U.S. will be easily solved.  As Charles De Gaulle once said to an American official who tried to explain confusing U.S. policies, “the United States must be a difficult country to govern.”  But today’s collective action problems show the continuing importance of Madison’s project.  Joseph Nye has said, the U.S. may not need permission from abroad, but it often does need help to succeed. 

A new strategy to bridge domestic and international needs

The need for action is more and more evident. The threatened damage from climate impacts is widespread, as evidenced by fires and storms, rising seas, and growing economy-wide risk. The importance of climate change to national security and foreign policy is increasingly recognized. The gains to be had from renewed leadership on clean technology are growing. But whether the U.S. again becomes a leader on domestic and international climate action depends on a strategy that turns the generally favorable public opinion on addressing climate change into forceful national action. This effort will be able to build on the work that has continued among states and cities and civil society. Climate policy can be a driver in a larger industrial renaissance that creates jobs and growth and provides economic security at the same time it confronts the growing damage from climate change.

As climate pressures rise on individual nations, the Paris Agreement could become a source of renewal for international order. Observers are rightly worried that implementation of Paris is not yet strong enough. But Paris will survive because the climate threat is growing. As the U.S. relearns the lessons of the last generation about the value of alliances and of strategy that addresses domestic and international needs together, Paris can be a place to relaunch U.S. leadership with global partners. And Paris is likely to have increasing significance. A combination of market forces, technological innovation, and smart policies can give it traction, and in dealing with energy, the lifeblood of nations, everyone will want to be at the table where the play has wider implications for diplomacy beyond climate change.

Some actors seem tempted to go backward to the troubled international regime of the first decades of the twentieth century. But Paris signals the realistic way forward, following nature’s iron rule of interdependence, which governs the new diplomacy. The situation is still precarious, but strong forces of conscience and interest tell us both the dangers and opportunities are real.

ArticleClimate Diplomacy
Climate Change
Climate Diplomacy

North America


Adaptation & Resilience

All countries will need to adapt to some of the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change that are already unavoidable. Food security, livelihoods, water resource availability and public health are some affected areas. People living in poverty are more vulnerable, having a lower capacity to adapt. Thus, it is essential to promote resilience building. The adaptation and resilience aspects need to be mainstreamed into planning by policy makers and the private sector as well as integrated into development strategies.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods

Nature protection is most sustainable if it essentially contributes to the long-term stability of human needs. Today many regions around the world are confronted with increasing destruction of the natural foundations of life. The consequences of wide-ranging resource destruction are no longer regionally limited, but rather represent a global threat. Those affected are mainly rural populations, who find the sources of their income and the foundations of their way of life swept away. The depletion and destruction of natural resources goes hand in hand with decreasing agricultural yields and increasing poverty, which in turn forces the affected populations to deplete the remaining resources.

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Capacity Building

On the one hand, conflicts are caused by structural factors, such as economic and social inequality or environmental destruction. On the other hand, conflicts are fuelled by a lack of democratic structures, deficient mechanisms of non-violent conflict settlement, inadequate rule of law, the destruction of social and cultural identity and the disregard of human rights. Against this backdrop, development policies have been dedicated to a broad concept of security, which comprises political, economic, ecological and social stability. As a consequence, development cooperation agencies and actors have developed a broad spectrum of approaches for conflict prevention and transformation as well as for sustainable use of natural resources.

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Civil Society

Civil society is the first victim of environmental pollution, under-development and conflicts. Economically disadvantaged and politically marginalized population groups are particularly affected by violent conflicts as well as increasing resource degradation. Simultaneously, civil society is a fundamental pillar for implementing sustainable development. It contributes in many ways to strengthening conflict prevention and plays a significant role in the peaceful and democratic development of states. It must be supported to strengthen civil rights, adherence to human rights in general and democratic participation.

Climate Change

Climate change resulting from the emission of greenhouse gases represents one of the vital challenges for international environmental policy. Flooding, droughts, shifting of climate zones and increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events will have serious economic and social consequences for entire regions. The climate problem is also directly linked to the question of future energy generation.

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Climate Diplomacy

To address the challenges posed by climate change, a new profile of climate diplomacy is evolving. This utilises a full range of policies, including development cooperation, conflict prevention efforts, and humanitarian assistance, in addition to more traditional measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Moving from a risk analysis of climate-related threats to well-timed preventive action requires a greater commitment to integrating climate change concerns into development, foreign, and security policies. Examples include strengthening diplomatic networks, building new alliances with partners, and raising awareness – not only of potentially negative climate change impacts, but also of opportunities to embark on a sustainable transformation of our societies.

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Climate action entails an array of economic, social, political and environmental co-benefits. It provides an opportunity for economic growth and new jobs. Many investments can take into account climate considerations without becoming more costly. Further important co-benefits include: improved energy security, less local air and water pollution, health benefits as well as ecosystem and biodiversity protection.

Conflict Transformation

In order to overcome the structural causes of violent conflicts and thus bring about an improvement in the framework conditions for peaceful and fair development, it is essential to have long term and broadly planned peace development and peace advancement. Various governmental and non-governmental, national and international actors and groups are involved in these processes.

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Climate change and development are inextricably linked. Climate change endangers the development agenda and has the potential to reverse development goals. Furthermore, successful mitigation of climate change heavily depends on development choices around the world. Therefore, development strategies need to be climate-compatible to provide long-term success, and there are viable policy options that support this compatibility. Many mitigation and adaptation activities can present development opportunities to developing countries and avoid the lock-in to environmentally damaging technologies.

Early Warning & Risk Analysis

The reasons for the development and escalation of conflicts and the incidence of risks are multifaceted and complex. Simultaneously, the assessment of the specific causes in the form of risk and conflict analyses can contribute to a better understanding of these processes and make it possible to provide warning of negative developments, or ideally help prevent them. In the context of natural resource use, risks and conflicts have gained increasing attention in the past years. The debate on possible future water wars is merely one example.

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The well-being of individuals, communities and nations depends on the availability of energy resources. The gap between energy supply and demand appears to be growing, making the world vulnerable to serious economic shocks. At the same time, the burning of fossil fuels causing climate change is one of the vital challenges of international environmental policy. So far, only rudimentary approaches exist for shaping climate and energy security in a sustainable way. The components of a strategy that can contribute to reducing vulnerabilities related to climate change and energy policy include a greater role for renewable energies, the improvement of energy efficiency and a stronger decentralisation of energy supply.

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Environment & Migration

The economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change aggravate the breakdown of eco-system-dependent livelihoods and are likely to become dominant drivers of long-term migration. Natural disasters already cause massive shorter-term displacement and the number of temporarily displaced people is likely to further increase with climate change. For vulnerable populations in vulnerable regions, such as the Sahel zone or the Ganges delta, migration often becomes the sole survival strategy. In order to address climate-related displacement and migration successfully, knowledge of effective adaptation and an improved understanding of how environmental change affects human mobility is essential. 

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Climate finance, from all sources, plays a key role in supporting and enabling adaptation and mitigation action as well as climate and energy innovation. The Paris Agreement ensured that the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are at the core of climate finance architecture as entities entrusted with the operation of the Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC. Increasing climate finance from all relevant public and private sources is crucial. Furthermore, much needs to be done to redirect finance flows to sustainable paths, e.g. reducing fossil fuel subsidies, introducing maritime and air transportation taxes. The conditions for green investment in developing countries should also be improved.


Forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. Competition for forest resources triggers, exacerbates, or finances numerous crises and conflicts in tropical developing countries. Illegal logging and timber trade foster instability and sometimes violent conflict by strengthening illegal and armed groups, increasing corruption and exacerbating use and claim conflicts among local communities, the state and the business sector. Forests are a vital resource to poor people but they can also become areas of conflict. Sustainable management of forest resources is therefore key to preventing violent conflict over and within forests.

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Gender plays an important role as a category of conflict for many reasons. The interlinkages between gender, environment and conflicts are complex and much research is still needed. Existing insights suggest that conflicts may worsen gender inequalities that existed before the outbreak of violence. The unequal distribution of land property rights in many parts of the world serves as an example. Moreover, women (and children) are among those most affected by both violent conflict and natural disasters. At the same time, women carry much of the burden of trying to implement rehabilitation measures after crisis events.

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Land & Food

Increasing water scarcity, desertification and crop failures due to extreme weather events are becoming more and more of a threat to global food production. While the world’s population continues to grow rapidly, food production is unable to keep pace. Due to the global food crisis in 2008, the number of hungry people reached the symbolic one billion threshold for the first time – corresponding to about 16 percent of world population. Food insecurity may be a consequence or cause of conflicts. Violent conflicts often lead to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and means of production, as well as to the displacement of local communities.

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Minerals & Mining

In the past, the discovery and tapping of valuable or strategic resources like valuable minerals, oil and natural gas, particularly in developing and emerging countries, has often led to large scale environmental contamination and negative development. The "resource curse" of some countries shows that the wealth from resource yields is frequently unfairly distributed; instead of serving development it advanced the formation of corrupt elites and in some cases even led to conflicts and civil wars. Measures in various sectors and at all levels are important in order to use the potential of these natural resources in a manner that is sustainable and prevents conflicts.

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Private Sector

The spread of violent conflict not only affects people but also companies located in such regions. Destruction of investments and infrastructure, collapse of markets and trade partnerships, flight and expulsion of employees are phenomena of conflicts and environment-induced crises that directly affect companies in unstable regions. Almost all branches of the economy thus have a clear interest in a stable and peaceful environment for their activities. Conversely, the business sector plays an important role in the interaction of economic growth, social development and a healthy environment, all of which can advance peace and sustainable development. 

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Environmental issues have a significant security dimension. Access to, and overuse of, natural resources often play a key role in civil wars or other forms of internal domestic conflict. This is compounded by climate change and environmental degradation. Climate change is now widely recognised as a non-traditional, risk-multiplying threat that will have increasing security impacts. Key risks with possible implications for human and national security include water scarcity, food crises, natural disasters, and displacement. More preventive diplomacy and advocacy is needed to address the strategic implications of climate and environmental change.

Sustainable Transformation

Sustainable Transformation allows societies to profit from a growing, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive economy – especially in emerging and developing countries. This requires a higher up-front investment, but the benefits of a sustainable transformation in the medium and long term are significant. For instance, energy cost savings and reducing the impact of price volatility offer major incentives for deploying renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency. Such benefits exist in all key sectors of the economy.

Technology & Innovation

Innovations and technologies are already readily available and affordable but their global diffusion and uptake remains a challenge. Innovation and technology are crucial to achieving ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets. However, research and development often do not receive appropriate public support. Developing countries can leapfrog high-carbon industrialisation phases by adopting, deploying and improving existing innovations and technologies. For this, it is essential to minimise financial, administrative and political barriers.


The availability of freshwater resources in sufficient quantity and quality is essential for the preservation of human health and sound ecosystems. The use of water resources is also vital, however, for economic development: whether for agriculture, industrial production or for electricity generation. The world's freshwater resources are distributed very unevenly in terms of geography and seasons. In addition, water shortage is becoming more prevalent in several regions due to population growth, economic development, urbanisation and increasing environmental pollution. Thus, water resources can hold potential for conflicts between parties who have different interests and needs.

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The environment in Asia is already under tremendous pressure as a result of the unsustainable use of land, forests, water and even air in many regions. Climate change will only exacerbate these challenges. Rising sea levels will likely endanger densely populated areas, changes in the monsoon patterns can strongly impact agriculture, melting glaciers will increase long-term water scarcity, and extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and cyclones can pose further hazards.

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Central America & Caribbean

Natural disasters and water scarcity are key challenges for most of Central America and the Caribbean. These challenges will become even more pronounced as the climate changes. Weak resource and disaster risk management and land disputes pose additional security challenges for large parts of the region. Several countries of Central America and the Caribbean have limited adaptive capacities as they face political instability caused by high social inequality, crime, corruption, and intra-state conflicts.

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As one of the most developed and most densely populated regions in the world, Europe makes heavy use of its resources, resulting in difficult trade-offs and negative consequences for the environment and ecosystems. Land is used for settlements, agriculture and dense infrastructure, creating problems of soil degradation. Water resources are stressed due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Despite nature protection policies, Europe continues to lose biodiversity at an alarming pace. Some of these trends are exacerbated by climate change, which is expected, for instance, to lead to shifts in water availability.

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Global Issues

Resource scarcities, environmental pollution and climate change are not limited by national borders, but often have a transboundary or even global impact. These issues interact with political stability, governance structures and economic performance, and can trigger or worsen disputes and violent conflicts. Exacerbating some of these trends, climate change is likely to lead to the degradation of freshwater resources, declines in food production, increases in storm and flood disasters and environmentally induced migration. All these developments pose potential for conflict.

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Middle East & North Africa

The geopolitical position of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), its fossil fuel resources, high population growth and the political changes spurred by the Arab Spring all make the region one of the most dynamic in the world. Nevertheless, it is also one of the most arid and environmentally stressed. Dwindling water resources, limited arable and grazing land, high pollution from household and industrial waste, remnants of conflicts and increasing desertification are key environmental challenges.

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North America

Climate change has various impacts on the three North American countries of Canada, Mexico and the US. Canada and the US have well-developed adaptive capacities and foster the strengthening of capacities in other regions as well. With high per capita emissions, these two countries also bear a greater responsibility for a changing climate. Mexico has a sound national strategy for climate change adaptation, yet fewer capacities than Canada and the US. The poorer and rural populations of Mexico are especially vulnerable to climate change, due to an increased sensitivity and a lower adaptive capacity.

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Oceania & Pacific

In Oceania, population growth and economic development trends put a strain on oceanic and island ecosystems. Freshwater scarcity, overexploitation of fisheries, loss of land biodiversity, forests and trees, invasive species, soil degradation, increasing levels of settlement, poor management of solid and hazardous waste and disproportionate use of coastal areas are some of the problems. Climate change exacerbates most of these trends, while also raising questions about the future sovereignty of some island states.

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South America

South America has diverse and unique ecosystems and is very rich in biodiversity. Weak natural resource management, land disputes and extreme weather events bring about significant challenges for the region. While South America accounts for relatively few CO2 emissions, the changing climate will alter its ecosystems and greater climate variability will lead to more hurricanes, landslides, and droughts.

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Sub-Saharan Africa

In many African states, environmental security issues rank high on the political agenda. Throughout the continent, countries suffer from water scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty. These chronic and worsening resource scarcities have severe livelihood implications and are exacerbated by political conflicts over access to and control over these resources. Climate change may seriously threaten political and economic stability in Africa. It may also put a severe strain on the capacities of states and societies to co-ordinate activities, to communicate and to organize.

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