The British NGO International Alert (IA) estimates that the consequences of climate change coupled with poverty and poor governance could lead to an increase in armed conflict in 46 countries with a total population of 2.7 billion. According to another study by the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) the implications could be even more drastic. The authors claim that the interplay of growing nuclear energy use and the destabilizing impact of climate change can heighten the risk of (regional) nuclear wars.
Although in both cases the underlying assumptions for these scenarios are perhaps debatable – for instance the figures used by IA are based on the sum of all countries considered fragile or prone to conflict according to various international indices (e.g. CrisisWatch) – such developments are not entirely impossible. However, both scenarios serve very different purposes. The US study is concerned with highlighting the potential consequences, which are to some extent extreme and perhaps also unavoidable. Yet it does not present any concrete policy options that emerge from its findings. In this respect the study is similar to a series of reports over the last months that have dealt with the potential threats of climate change.
IA on the other hand has focused on adaptation to climate change. If adaptation is not undertaken cautiously it could result in new conflicts. Migration, which is one adaptation strategy, has considerable potential to cause conflict. Peacebuilding and peace research can prove helpful here. The focus will be to shape the process of societal change, be it at a social, economic or political level, such that it occurs as peacefully as possible and is able to balance diverse interests. (Achim Maas)

The International Alert study is available at: http://www.international-alert.org/climate_change.php

The study by CSIS and CNAS is available at: http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4154/type,1/

Published in: ECC-Newsletter, December 2007