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A Californian vision for a brighter future for humanity and nature: Reflections on The Breakthrough Institute’s 2016 Dialogue

05 July, 2016
Johannes Ackva, adelphi

California.jpg

California, Bridge, Heat, Dry
The Breakthrough Institute held its annual Dialogue in Sausalito, CA, close to Berkeley and Mountain View. Photo credits: Johannes Ackva, adelphi

California has been at the forefront of the modern environmental movement that, in its most iconic form, we associate with hippies and alternative lifestyles. In the following decades, Silicon Valley - the mecca of tech-companies and engine of technological innovation and progress – also became another widely known Californian export.

It is thus fitting that the Californian think tank The Breakthrough Institute held its annual Dialogue in Sausalito, CA, - close to Berkeley and Mountain View - bringing together scientists, journalists, activists, and entrepreneurs from across the world to discuss how to overcome societal and technological hurdles for a brighter future for humankind and nature.

The honoring of the late David MacKay, British physicist and former Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change, whose seminal “Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air” emphasizes the importance of energy policy discussions informed by physical facts and quantitative analysis, started and set the tone for the Dialogue.

In this vein, the University of Oxford's Max Roser kicked off the program, presenting his visualizations that demonstrate the enormous progress humanity has made over the past decades in greatly increasing the well-being of the average human being. The following graph makes the case for this decline in absolute poverty, and Max Roser’s web publication “Our World in Data” provides a host of other fascinating visualizations on the state and trajectory of humanity.

decline of absolute poverty
Figure 1: The decline of absolute poverty (from presentation by Max Roser)

 

This presentation then also framed a central question pervading the Dialogue: Why is it that, in a time where humanity has achieved unprecedented progress, often enabled by technological advances, do Western publics and discourses often have such a pessimistic vision of the future and the role of progress and technology? Figure 2 illustrates this discrepancy, showing the lowest confidence in an improving world in some of the richest countries.

 Belief in progress across the world
Figure 2: Belief in progress across the world (from the presentation by Max Roser)

 


Competing truths
Tackling this question, Yale’s Dan Kahan of the Cultural Cognition Project provided experimental and survey data demonstrating that, rather than processing evidence rationally, we seek to keep our beliefs in line with our political and sociocultural identity.

Hence, 'Silicon Valley types’ will often focus on solutions enabled by humans’ ingenuity to innovate, whereas many environmentalists tend to focus on decreasing demand and changing behaviors, because each’s preferred modes of problem-solving correlates systematically with other beliefs of how the world is and how it ought to be (and, crucially, how to close that gap between is and ought).

Both are partial truths making it so important that the environmental discourse -- often dominated by traditional environmentalists -- is also enriched by ecomodernists emphasizing the role of technology and innovation in solving environmental challenges.

 


Three insights from the ecomodernist perspective
To illustrate some important insights from the ecomodernist perspective on questions of sustainability, the following reflection focuses on three central themes rather than providing a detailed chronological account of all sessions constituting the Dialogue.

 


I) For climate justice, clean energy should be abundant and cheap
Many energy scenarios assume that energy demand in the developing world will grow comparatively slowly, at a rate at which modern lifestyles will remain unachievable for large parts of the world population.

One reason for this is “carbon conditionality”, the constraint that Western funding, or loans for energy projects, are often only given for low-carbon energy projects. This conditionality is certainly well-intentioned, given that climate change will hit the poorest the hardest and that per-capita emissions on Western levels across the world would certainly wreak havoc to our climate. Similarly, given the view of many Western countries that nuclear energy is too risky a technology to deploy, nuclear projects are also often not supported.   

However, Samir Saran of the Indian Observer Research Foundation stressed the enormous hypocrisy of Western publics that, albeit unable and/or unwilling to decarbonize at home, opposed (and often deny loans) for both fossil and nuclear power in developing countries. As he put it, the Western world has decided on keeping the poor (energy) poor as a climate mitigation strategy. Whether one fully shares this view or not, the difficulty of even affluent democracies to decarbonize illustrates the need for additional innovation to decarbonize while increasing energy supply to tackle the twin challenges of energy poverty and climate change.


II) The counterintuitive and dangerous neglect of innovation
While we live in a world of rapid technological change, innovation in the sustainability realm is often surprisingly neglected. For the case of energy, this underinvestment into innovation is well-documented and subject of increased policy attention (also see our recent post, in greater detail here).

However, this neglect is also present in other crucial sustainability areas. As Professor Cassmann of the University of Nebraska explained, farmlands’ share of total land area has been increasing at the fastest rate since 2002, fueled – inter alia – by low productivity growth due to slow innovation (“[t]he tyranny of linear rates of yield gain”).

increasing rate of cropland expansion
Figure 3: The increasing rate of cropland expansion (from presentation by Kenneth Cassmann)

 

To answer a session’s question - “Is Peak Farmland in sight?” - in the affirmative, the further digitalizing agriculture to better collect data (sensing) and build better models to inform precise and targeted responses to increase agricultural productivity was advanced as a key strategy.  In short, in a world of finite space and increasing population density neglecting innovation risks making a Malthusian world - where population pressures induce unmanageable scarcities - a reality.


III) Density is critical because it makes decoupling possible
A related recurring theme was density as the enabler for decoupling human civilization from nature to reduce biodiversity and habitat loss. For agriculture, energy, and space for human settlements, the denser forms of producing / providing those enable to reduce interference into nature and regrowing wilderness. This logic leads to seemingly counterintuitive results.
For example, the tremendous land use requirements of renewable energy – already fundamentally changing public and private lands in the US and other countries – leads many conservationists to prefer nuclear energy given its much lower land requirements. The theme of density as an enabler of sustainability was also echoed for palm oil plantations in Indonesia and cattle farming in Brazil, where process innovations allowed avoiding additional deforestation.


Reflections
Of course, just as classical environmentalism, ecomodernism does not come without its blindspots or underemphasized solutions.

For example, while downplayed in the session on Peak Farmland, reducing meat consumption is – especially when successful in those parts of the world where meat-consumption increases strongest – another effective strategy given the enormous environmental footprint of raising livestock.

Similarly, while the intermittency and lacking energy density make current-day renewables unable to power modern industrialized economies by themselves (leading many ecomodernists to focus on nuclear power as the solution), innovations dramatically improving renewable energy technologies’ weaknesses are also conceivable. For example, tidal power, while still intermittent, is highly predictable. And airborne wind power could provide a much denser and less intermittent form of renewable energy. Thus, even when opposing nuclear power, the ecomodernist foci -- abundance of clean energy, a focus of innovation and the importance of density -- are still useful when reflecting on energy priorities.


Closing remarks
As Ted Nordhaus, Executive Director and co-founder of the Breakthrough Institute, stressed in his closing remarks, the answers provided are always partial and critique is essential for further development of ecomodernist thought and action. As many participants stressed, however, the hopeful message -- accompanied by supportive evidence and innovative strategies to tackle sustainability problems -- is what makes this Dialogue so valuable for its many returning participants. In a time where the climate and many other sustainability discussions are characterized by the discrepancy of high global ambition with insufficient national implementation, a vision focused on expanding our capability to tackle scarcity and pollution problems with new and improved technologies appears as a vital part of the solution. 


ArticleClimate Diplomacy
Topic
Climate Change
Co-Benefits
Energy
Land & Food
Sustainable Transformation
Technology & Innovation

Region
Global Issues

Topics

Adaptation & Resilience

All countries will need to adapt to some of the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change that are already unavoidable. Food security, livelihoods, water resource availability and public health are some affected areas. People living in poverty are more vulnerable, having a lower capacity to adapt. Thus, it is essential to promote resilience building. The adaptation and resilience aspects need to be mainstreamed into planning by policy makers and the private sector as well as integrated into development strategies.

Biodiversity & Livelihoods

Nature protection is most sustainable if it essentially contributes to the long-term stability of human needs. Today many regions around the world are confronted with increasing destruction of the natural foundations of life. The consequences of wide-ranging resource destruction are no longer regionally limited, but rather represent a global threat. Those affected are mainly rural populations, who find the sources of their income and the foundations of their way of life swept away. The depletion and destruction of natural resources goes hand in hand with decreasing agricultural yields and increasing poverty, which in turn forces the affected populations to deplete the remaining resources.

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Capacity Building

On the one hand, conflicts are caused by structural factors, such as economic and social inequality or environmental destruction. On the other hand, conflicts are fuelled by a lack of democratic structures, deficient mechanisms of non-violent conflict settlement, inadequate rule of law, the destruction of social and cultural identity and the disregard of human rights. Against this backdrop, development policies have been dedicated to a broad concept of security, which comprises political, economic, ecological and social stability. As a consequence, development cooperation agencies and actors have developed a broad spectrum of approaches for conflict prevention and transformation as well as for sustainable use of natural resources.

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Cities

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Civil Society

Civil society is the first victim of environmental pollution, under-development and conflicts. Economically disadvantaged and politically marginalized population groups are particularly affected by violent conflicts as well as increasing resource degradation. Simultaneously, civil society is a fundamental pillar for implementing sustainable development. It contributes in many ways to strengthening conflict prevention and plays a significant role in the peaceful and democratic development of states. It must be supported to strengthen civil rights, adherence to human rights in general and democratic participation.

Climate Change

Climate change resulting from the emission of greenhouse gases represents one of the vital challenges for international environmental policy. Flooding, droughts, shifting of climate zones and increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events will have serious economic and social consequences for entire regions. The climate problem is also directly linked to the question of future energy generation.

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Climate Diplomacy

To address the challenges posed by climate change, a new profile of climate diplomacy is evolving. This utilises a full range of policies, including development cooperation, conflict prevention efforts, and humanitarian assistance, in addition to more traditional measures of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Moving from a risk analysis of climate-related threats to well-timed preventive action requires a greater commitment to integrating climate change concerns into development, foreign, and security policies. Examples include strengthening diplomatic networks, building new alliances with partners, and raising awareness – not only of potentially negative climate change impacts, but also of opportunities to embark on a sustainable transformation of our societies.

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Co-Benefits

Climate action entails an array of economic, social, political and environmental co-benefits. It provides an opportunity for economic growth and new jobs. Many investments can take into account climate considerations without becoming more costly. Further important co-benefits include: improved energy security, less local air and water pollution, health benefits as well as ecosystem and biodiversity protection.

Conflict Transformation

In order to overcome the structural causes of violent conflicts and thus bring about an improvement in the framework conditions for peaceful and fair development, it is essential to have long term and broadly planned peace development and peace advancement. Various governmental and non-governmental, national and international actors and groups are involved in these processes.

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Development

Climate change and development are inextricably linked. Climate change endangers the development agenda and has the potential to reverse development goals. Furthermore, successful mitigation of climate change heavily depends on development choices around the world. Therefore, development strategies need to be climate-compatible to provide long-term success, and there are viable policy options that support this compatibility. Many mitigation and adaptation activities can present development opportunities to developing countries and avoid the lock-in to environmentally damaging technologies.

Early Warning & Risk Analysis

The reasons for the development and escalation of conflicts and the incidence of risks are multifaceted and complex. Simultaneously, the assessment of the specific causes in the form of risk and conflict analyses can contribute to a better understanding of these processes and make it possible to provide warning of negative developments, or ideally help prevent them. In the context of natural resource use, risks and conflicts have gained increasing attention in the past years. The debate on possible future water wars is merely one example.

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Energy

The well-being of individuals, communities and nations depends on the availability of energy resources. The gap between energy supply and demand appears to be growing, making the world vulnerable to serious economic shocks. At the same time, the burning of fossil fuels causing climate change is one of the vital challenges of international environmental policy. So far, only rudimentary approaches exist for shaping climate and energy security in a sustainable way. The components of a strategy that can contribute to reducing vulnerabilities related to climate change and energy policy include a greater role for renewable energies, the improvement of energy efficiency and a stronger decentralisation of energy supply.

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Environment & Migration

The economic, social and environmental consequences of climate change aggravate the breakdown of eco-system-dependent livelihoods and are likely to become dominant drivers of long-term migration. Natural disasters already cause massive shorter-term displacement and the number of temporarily displaced people is likely to further increase with climate change. For vulnerable populations in vulnerable regions, such as the Sahel zone or the Ganges delta, migration often becomes the sole survival strategy. In order to address climate-related displacement and migration successfully, knowledge of effective adaptation and an improved understanding of how environmental change affects human mobility is essential. 

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Finance

Climate finance, from all sources, plays a key role in supporting and enabling adaptation and mitigation action as well as climate and energy innovation. The Paris Agreement ensured that the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are at the core of climate finance architecture as entities entrusted with the operation of the Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC. Increasing climate finance from all relevant public and private sources is crucial. Furthermore, much needs to be done to redirect finance flows to sustainable paths, e.g. reducing fossil fuel subsidies, introducing maritime and air transportation taxes. The conditions for green investment in developing countries should also be improved.

Forests

Forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. Competition for forest resources triggers, exacerbates, or finances numerous crises and conflicts in tropical developing countries. Illegal logging and timber trade foster instability and sometimes violent conflict by strengthening illegal and armed groups, increasing corruption and exacerbating use and claim conflicts among local communities, the state and the business sector. Forests are a vital resource to poor people but they can also become areas of conflict. Sustainable management of forest resources is therefore key to preventing violent conflict over and within forests.

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Gender

Gender plays an important role as a category of conflict for many reasons. The interlinkages between gender, environment and conflicts are complex and much research is still needed. Existing insights suggest that conflicts may worsen gender inequalities that existed before the outbreak of violence. The unequal distribution of land property rights in many parts of the world serves as an example. Moreover, women (and children) are among those most affected by both violent conflict and natural disasters. At the same time, women carry much of the burden of trying to implement rehabilitation measures after crisis events.

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Land & Food

Increasing water scarcity, desertification and crop failures due to extreme weather events are becoming more and more of a threat to global food production. While the world’s population continues to grow rapidly, food production is unable to keep pace. Due to the global food crisis in 2008, the number of hungry people reached the symbolic one billion threshold for the first time – corresponding to about 16 percent of world population. Food insecurity may be a consequence or cause of conflicts. Violent conflicts often lead to the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and means of production, as well as to the displacement of local communities.

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Minerals & Mining

In the past, the discovery and tapping of valuable or strategic resources like valuable minerals, oil and natural gas, particularly in developing and emerging countries, has often led to large scale environmental contamination and negative development. The "resource curse" of some countries shows that the wealth from resource yields is frequently unfairly distributed; instead of serving development it advanced the formation of corrupt elites and in some cases even led to conflicts and civil wars. Measures in various sectors and at all levels are important in order to use the potential of these natural resources in a manner that is sustainable and prevents conflicts.

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Private Sector

The spread of violent conflict not only affects people but also companies located in such regions. Destruction of investments and infrastructure, collapse of markets and trade partnerships, flight and expulsion of employees are phenomena of conflicts and environment-induced crises that directly affect companies in unstable regions. Almost all branches of the economy thus have a clear interest in a stable and peaceful environment for their activities. Conversely, the business sector plays an important role in the interaction of economic growth, social development and a healthy environment, all of which can advance peace and sustainable development. 

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Security

Environmental issues have a significant security dimension. Access to, and overuse of, natural resources often play a key role in civil wars or other forms of internal domestic conflict. This is compounded by climate change and environmental degradation. Climate change is now widely recognised as a non-traditional, risk-multiplying threat that will have increasing security impacts. Key risks with possible implications for human and national security include water scarcity, food crises, natural disasters, and displacement. More preventive diplomacy and advocacy is needed to address the strategic implications of climate and environmental change.

Sustainable Transformation

Sustainable Transformation allows societies to profit from a growing, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive economy – especially in emerging and developing countries. This requires a higher up-front investment, but the benefits of a sustainable transformation in the medium and long term are significant. For instance, energy cost savings and reducing the impact of price volatility offer major incentives for deploying renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency. Such benefits exist in all key sectors of the economy.

Technology & Innovation

Innovations and technologies are already readily available and affordable but their global diffusion and uptake remains a challenge. Innovation and technology are crucial to achieving ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation targets. However, research and development often do not receive appropriate public support. Developing countries can leapfrog high-carbon industrialisation phases by adopting, deploying and improving existing innovations and technologies. For this, it is essential to minimise financial, administrative and political barriers.

Water

The availability of freshwater resources in sufficient quantity and quality is essential for the preservation of human health and sound ecosystems. The use of water resources is also vital, however, for economic development: whether for agriculture, industrial production or for electricity generation. The world's freshwater resources are distributed very unevenly in terms of geography and seasons. In addition, water shortage is becoming more prevalent in several regions due to population growth, economic development, urbanisation and increasing environmental pollution. Thus, water resources can hold potential for conflicts between parties who have different interests and needs.

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Regions

Asia

The environment in Asia is already under tremendous pressure as a result of the unsustainable use of land, forests, water and even air in many regions. Climate change will only exacerbate these challenges. Rising sea levels will likely endanger densely populated areas, changes in the monsoon patterns can strongly impact agriculture, melting glaciers will increase long-term water scarcity, and extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and cyclones can pose further hazards.

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Central America & Caribbean

Natural disasters and water scarcity are key challenges for most of Central America and the Caribbean. These challenges will become even more pronounced as the climate changes. Weak resource and disaster risk management and land disputes pose additional security challenges for large parts of the region. Several countries of Central America and the Caribbean have limited adaptive capacities as they face political instability caused by high social inequality, crime, corruption, and intra-state conflicts.

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Europe

As one of the most developed and most densely populated regions in the world, Europe makes heavy use of its resources, resulting in difficult trade-offs and negative consequences for the environment and ecosystems. Land is used for settlements, agriculture and dense infrastructure, creating problems of soil degradation. Water resources are stressed due to unsustainable agricultural practices. Despite nature protection policies, Europe continues to lose biodiversity at an alarming pace. Some of these trends are exacerbated by climate change, which is expected, for instance, to lead to shifts in water availability.

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Global Issues

Resource scarcities, environmental pollution and climate change are not limited by national borders, but often have a transboundary or even global impact. These issues interact with political stability, governance structures and economic performance, and can trigger or worsen disputes and violent conflicts. Exacerbating some of these trends, climate change is likely to lead to the degradation of freshwater resources, declines in food production, increases in storm and flood disasters and environmentally induced migration. All these developments pose potential for conflict.

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Middle East & North Africa

The geopolitical position of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), its fossil fuel resources, high population growth and the political changes spurred by the Arab Spring all make the region one of the most dynamic in the world. Nevertheless, it is also one of the most arid and environmentally stressed. Dwindling water resources, limited arable and grazing land, high pollution from household and industrial waste, remnants of conflicts and increasing desertification are key environmental challenges.

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North America

Climate change has various impacts on the three North American countries of Canada, Mexico and the US. Canada and the US have well-developed adaptive capacities and foster the strengthening of capacities in other regions as well. With high per capita emissions, these two countries also bear a greater responsibility for a changing climate. Mexico has a sound national strategy for climate change adaptation, yet fewer capacities than Canada and the US. The poorer and rural populations of Mexico are especially vulnerable to climate change, due to an increased sensitivity and a lower adaptive capacity.

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Oceania & Pacific

In Oceania, population growth and economic development trends put a strain on oceanic and island ecosystems. Freshwater scarcity, overexploitation of fisheries, loss of land biodiversity, forests and trees, invasive species, soil degradation, increasing levels of settlement, poor management of solid and hazardous waste and disproportionate use of coastal areas are some of the problems. Climate change exacerbates most of these trends, while also raising questions about the future sovereignty of some island states.

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South America

South America has diverse and unique ecosystems and is very rich in biodiversity. Weak natural resource management, land disputes and extreme weather events bring about significant challenges for the region. While South America accounts for relatively few CO2 emissions, the changing climate will alter its ecosystems and greater climate variability will lead to more hurricanes, landslides, and droughts.

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Sub-Saharan Africa

In many African states, environmental security issues rank high on the political agenda. Throughout the continent, countries suffer from water scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty. These chronic and worsening resource scarcities have severe livelihood implications and are exacerbated by political conflicts over access to and control over these resources. Climate change may seriously threaten political and economic stability in Africa. It may also put a severe strain on the capacities of states and societies to co-ordinate activities, to communicate and to organize.

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