Source: openDemocracy.net

By Phil Champain

3 January 2011 - As we are forced to change the way we think about energy, the energy consumer is caught between need and the increasing risks involved in securing traditional energy sources. The links between energy provision and conflict need to be better understood. The consumer, particularly in the northern hemisphere, must become more discerning of how energy is sourced and provided.

In our industrialised world, relationships between states and the social contract within states have been partly shaped by the demand for and supply of energy, and by who has access to its benefits. Inter-state wars have been fought over energy resources such as oil for example – and the revenues supplied to governments by this 'black gold’ along with oil pricing policy for consumers (e.g. fuel subsidies) has shaped the degree of interdependency between central governments and citizens within states.

Indeed, over the past 100 years or so, demand for and supply of oil has come to dominate the relationship between those having energy resources and those wanting them. Oil provides warmth, electricity and fuel for transport. It is the lifeblood of the global grid systems which connect us – for better or worse.

Oil rich states such as Norway, Azerbaijan, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia have been, to different degrees, both the target of oil dependent societies and the recipients of enriching oil revenues. They have fared differently, their ability to withstand the shocks that come with dealing with 'black gold’ determined by broader governance capacities. Conflict and violence has been as common an outcome as peace and prosperity.

Now the energy picture is changing due to growing uncertainty over the supply of energy resources, the continued upward trend in demand, and the impact of energy use on the environment. Will this trigger a change in the nature of relationships between and within states? Will patterns of peace, conflict and violence consequently change? If so, then will these changing patterns be for better or worse?

There is one thing about which we can be certain - efforts to adjust energy provision in ways which maximize the potential for peace and development will fail if the consumer does not become more discerning of the sources and methods of energy provision which most of us take for granted. Over the coming decades, a growing worldwide middle class will undoubtedly put increasing demands and strain on energy provision, which will simultaneously create pressure for innovation into new technologies. And with the expansion of new technologies, the costs of new ways of generating energy will fall. However, removing the political barriers to equitable access to energy provision will not be so straightforward. This must also be part of the new, emerging energy discussion.

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