By Ladeene Freimuth, Gidon Bromberg, Munqeth Mehyar, and Nader Al Khateeb, EcoPeace/Friends of the Earth Middle East

With the Middle East being the world’s most water-stressed region, climate change - which is projected to cause sea level rise, more extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, and less precipitation - will contribute to even greater water stress in the region. Governments, policy makers and the general public, through the media, must realize that the climate crisis is therefore a new and real threat to the Middle East with severe environmental, economic, political and security implications. When people lack adequate safe, clean drinking water, and water resources are shared across political boundaries, the risk of evoking political conflict increases. For a region that already possesses some of the greatest political tensions in the world, the climate crisis and its potential physical and socioeconomic impacts are likely to exacerbate this cross-border political instability.

Climate change is likely to act as a "threat multiplier" – exacerbating water scarcity and tensions over water within and between nations linked by hydrological resources, geography, and shared political boundaries. Poor and vulnerable populations, which exist in significant numbers throughout the region, will likely face the greatest risk. Water shortages and rising sea levels could lead to mass migration in the region. Scenarios conducted by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and other organizations indicate that a 0.5 meter (approximately 19 inches) rise in sea level, for example, could displace nearly 2-4 million Egyptians by 2050. The drinking water of 1.5 million Palestinians in Gaza would be further contaminated by rising sea levels leading to sea water intrusion of their only water source, the Coastal Aquifer. A decline in agricultural production from climate impacts on water resources, could lead to economic and political unrest across the region. This in return could threaten current regimes, thereby affecting internal and cross-border relations. These factors place greater pressure on the entire region and on already-strained, cross-border relations, and potentially foster more widespread heightened tensions and/or conflicts.

The following factors will play a role in determining the likelihood for conflict or cooperation in the region as climate impacts become more significant:

• The existence of water agreements, and their degree of sustainability, including the ability of parties to deal with extreme circumstances, such as longer periods of drought;
• The influence of destabilizing economic and political factors, e.g., unemployment and mass migration due to agricultural decline and large scale flooding of agricultural areas;
• The extent of national economic and political development, including the degree to which local institutional structures and infrastructure exist;
• A given political entity' ability to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change;
• Power relationships between the parties involved; and
• Whether it is politically expedient at a given time to cooperate (or continue to cooperate) over water resources.

However, dealing with climate change and recognizing the looming crisis provides opportunities for local, cross-border and international cooperation to ameliorate the problems that are already occurring and that are projected to intensify. Improving local demand- and supply-side water and energy management policies is essential and will only become more critical as the needs increase due to climate change.

Israel as a developed economy must join OECD country commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Third-party donor assistance will play an important role in facilitating adaptation in countries, such as Egypt, Palestine and Jordan. Near-, medium-, and long-term planning efforts are needed, which necessitate cross border cooperation. The ability to provide technological clean energy and water solutions domestically could enable the countries of the region to become part of the broader solution for addressing global climate change.

The authors presented "Climate Change: A new threat to Middle East security" during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali in December 2007.

Please see the complete study at http://www.foeme.org/index_images/dinamicas/publications/publ78_1.pdf

For more information on the activities of EcoPeace/Friends of the Earth Middle East, please see http://www.foeme.org/

Published in: ECC-Newsletter, February 2008