Climate-induced migration in Mexico is a complex issue and the future impact of this phenomenon is neither clear nor agreed upon. The Environment, Conflict and Cooperation (ECC) team talked to Elizabeth Deheza from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. She and Dr Jorge Mora are the authors of the recent study “Climate Change, Migration and Security: Best-Practice Policy and Operational Options for Mexico”.

ECC: How will climate change impact migratory patterns within Mexico and the associated security issues?

Temperatures in Mexico are rising, precipitation levels are falling and the increasing frequency and intensity of flooding and extreme weather events pose serious threats to water, food and energy security. In turn, the availability of and competition over these key resources will alter the spatial distribution of people in Mexico.

Our Whitehall Report investigates possible linkages between environmental changes, migration and its repercussions concerning national and human security in Mexico. Controversial suggestions from the academic cluster have predicted that climate change could drive millions of people to migrate from the effects of severe drought, floods and extreme weather events, triggering major security concerns and a spike in regional tensions. Such controversial statements really sparked our attention and inspired us to further understand and quantify the climate-migration-security nexus.

ECC: What is your research approach and what are your main findings?

Our approach involved a qualitative and quantitative analysis comprising an extensive literature review, a series of interviews and an econometric model (Multinominal Logit Model - MLM). The model used demographic (characteristics of households and individuals derived from a sample of the National Census 2010), temperature and precipitation variables with a municipal-level resolution, and soil type variables. Our primary findings include:

• Internal and international migration in Mexico is linked to changes in temperature and precipitation.
• Climate variability is a determinant in the decision to migrate and the security risks will mainly be associated with resource stress, that is the availability and management of key resources both in sending as well as recipient communities. Resource (particularly water, but also food, land and energy) stress may arise in places already vulnerable to overcrowding, leading to resource scarcity and potentially heightening existing tensions.
• Decreasing annual mean precipitation is likely to increase water scarcity induced migration from the dry north.
• Food security is also threatened by increasing irregularities in the rainy season brought about by climate change. Desertification causes the abandonment of land where the production of primary resources occurs and could cause serious problems for food security in Mexico. The model shows that an increase in the mean annual temperature increases the probability of migration.

ECC: How is Mexico addressing these risks? What additional needs and priorities have you identified?

Mexico is one of the leading promoters of initiatives related to climate change globally, pushing forward adaptive measures, promoting regional collaboration through mechanisms such as the Mesoamerican Strategy for Environmental Sustainability (EMSA) and hosting international conferences such as the Conference of Parties (COP 16) and the Fourth Global Forum on Migration and Development. It has adopted a General Law on Climate Change. Mexico also recently presented its fifth national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in which our findings were included. Despite such progress, Mexico has not specifically addressed the impact of climate change on migration and the phenomenon is still absent from the General Law on Climate Change and the Migration Law (which makes no mention of climate change in a list of factors impacting the decision to migrate).

One of the key policy implications is that migration within Mexico is happening, especially toward vulnerable areas, exposing an already vulnerable population to greater risks and putting more pressure on key resources in areas that lack the infrastructure to effectively manage and successfully distribute resources such as water. Therefore, it is imperative to monitor, control and map these migratory flows as they may be used as part of an adaptive strategy to manage migration opportunities through planned relocation. Such a strategy could be part of the solution for internal migration along with legal and managed migration to the US and Canada for international migration.

ECC: What recommendations do you derive?

This study presents a series of recommendations based upon our key findings and a review of Mexico’s current strengths and areas for improvement, calling for an increased awareness of climate-induced migration in Mexican legal frameworks. Also, federal entities, municipalities, public and private research institutions are advised to consider collecting climate, demographic, ecological degradation and resource depletion data of higher-resolution than what is currently available, collating this into a national, publicly available database to facilitate monitoring. Additionally, the results of such efforts should be promoted through information dissemination related to changes in climate, increasing public awareness of local vulnerabilities and improving their ability to respond and adapt.

ECC: Thank you very much for this interview.