In the course of the debate on the security implications of climate change, the discussion on "environmental refugees" is also receiving new momentum. "More than 200 million people will have to flee their homes within the next thirty years, if climate change continues like that" claimed Greenpeace, releasing a new study on "Climate Refugees" in July, commissioned by Greenpeace. However, such numbers are far from being a consensus. There is still ongoing controversial debate on the definition of what constitutes an "environmental refugee". Estimates on future environmental migrants may vary greatly, depending on the methodologies and definitions applied. The Greenpeace report for instance refers to a study of Norman Myers, which was published in 2001. By contrast, others argue that there are no environmentally-induced displacements at all. Reasons for such opposing views are the diversity of factors that come into play as well as their complex interactions, which make it almost impossible for environmental factors to be identified as the root cause of displacement. This is especially true when it comes to "climate refugees".
Another report recently published by the UN University Environment and Human Security Institute (UNU-EHS) states – without quoting dramatic numbers – that "[...] Although the estimates [..] of environmental refugees are based almost entirely on anecdotal evidence and intuitive judgements, it is important not to trivialize the role environmental change and resource depletion may play in population movement." The study provides a critical overview on the current debate, illustrates the problems of recognizing environmental refugees within the definition of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and presents a preliminary practical classification scheme for environmental migrants. UNU-EHS emphasizes the need for scientific programmes to allow a better understanding of the cause-effect mechanisms between environmental degradation and forced migration. In order to raise awareness for the undoubtedly dramatic situation of many people affected by climate change, one should be careful in dealing with ill-founded numbers on the extent of imminent climate induced migration. Besides strengthening the scientific basis, UNU-EHS proposes to increase awareness, improve legislation, give the means for adequate humanitarian aid, and to strengthen institutions and policies. (Christiane Roettger)

The Greenpeace report "Climate Refugees" (German language) can here be downloaded.

The UNU-EHS paper "Control, Adapt or Flee. How to Face Environmental Migration?" is here available for download.

Published in:ECC-Newsletter, August 2007