In his thesis "Ethiopia and the Nile", author Yacob Arsano discusses the national and regional dilemmas of hydro-politics in the Eastern Nile Basin countries of Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea. At the national level, the study highlights two issues: the dilemma between the need to develop the available water resources to overcome the debilitating poverty on the one hand, and the risk of limited institutional and financial capacity to develop such water resources on the other. At the regional level, the author states that the shared waters and common cultural heritage unify the peoples of the Eastern Nile basin, while the colonial legacy, vestiges of the Cold War era, and unilateral and nationalistic strategies over water resource development have led to regional tensions and incompatible legal doctrines. The study traces the historical development that explains the present day situation, in view to understanding the dilemmas and highlighting ways to overcome them. Against this backdrop, ECC editors asked the author about the unifying and divisive factors and the options for cooperation in this environmentally and politically important region.

ECC-Editors: Against the backdrop of your study, what are the key factors for a positive development in the Nile Basin and what are the major problems?

Yacob Arsano: The Nile Basin states have accepted a shared vision on the cooperative utilisation and management of the Nile waters. They have agreed to work out an action plan towards establishing and enhancing shared benefits through multi-purpose projects on the shared waters of the Nile. Quite a few rudimentary programs have been laid down and facilitation offices and organisational structures have been established. The above are the key factors for positive developments in the Nile Basin.
On the other hand, there is a lingering problem that the Nile basin states have not been able to establish a legal and institutional mechanism to support and give shape to the inter-riparian cooperative efforts. The riparian states will have yet to establish confidence and trust in one another to fully cooperate under a framework mutually accepted and safeguarded. 

ECC-Editors: When you think of past and current trends in the Nile region, do you see any risks for "water wars" within or between states?

Yacob Arsano: I do not see any risk of "water wars" within and between states in the Nile Basin on account of shared waters of the Nile. Considering that the waters are shared and always will be, the riparian countries cannot afford to go to an unwinnable war. To the contrary, shared waters can better serve as catalyst for cooperation rather than conflict.

ECC-Editors: Do you think that the Nile River Basin Initiative (NBI) is an appropriate mechanism to defuse tensions on the national and regional level?

Yacob Arsano: The Nile Basin Initiative has been able to bring the riparian states on board for dialogue towards establishing plans for cooperative utilisation and management of the water resources, and to make an effort towards establishing a legal /institutional framework. The NBI can be an appropriate mechanism when it is 'owned' and financially supported by the riparian states. NBI's sustainability depends on its independence and internal dynamics.

ECC-Editors: Thank you very much for the interview.

Dr. Yacob Arsano is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia. Contact: yarsano@ethionet.et

The paper "Ethiopia and the Nile" has been published as part of the Environment and Conflict Transformation series of the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich and is available for download at http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/details.cfm?lng=en&id=14399  

Published in: ECC-Newsletter, October 2007