30 July 2012 - Background
Rising food prices point to a potential crisis later this year as poor communities across the world find themselves unable to afford basic foodstuffs. The crisis now unfolding has some similarities to the major problems that occurred in 2008 that led to food riots in many countries. It also has echoes of the much more severe World Food Crisis in 1973/74. This time, though, there is mounting evidence that climate change is playing a role.
A Crisis in the Making
The corn (maize) belt of the United States is experiencing one of the most severe droughts in decades. While not yet as serious as the drought that led to the “dust bowl” era in the 1930s, it now affects 60% of the country and 78% of the corn-growing regions (US Drought Monitor, 24 July). According to the National Drought Summary, “in the 18 primary corn-growing states, 30% of the crop is in a poor or very poor condition”. This is not just a result of a hot dry summer this year, but started back in 2011 with very hot and dry conditions towards the end of that growing season. These were then followed by a relatively dry winter, followed by the exceptional temperatures and lack of rain experienced so far this year.
The problems in the United States are serious mainly because it is such a large grain exporter. They are paralleled by poor harvests across much of South America during the 2011-12 growing season. Furthermore, the Indian monsoons have come late this year and have been relatively weak in the early months. Unless there are rapid changes, it is highly likely that Indian grain production will be well below last year’s figures. The global position is further complicated by extraordinarily heavy rainfall in a number of countries, including China and Japan, often leading to the flooding of croplands.
At the time of writing (late July), we are unlikely to see disastrous famines affecting large parts of the world of the kind seen in the 1980's, sufficient to lead directly to widespread starvation. While there are 35 countries currently in need of external food assistance, including Afghanistan, North Korea, Haiti, Iraq and 28 countries in Africa, according to the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the key issue is access to food. What is far more likely is a period of high grain prices, exacerbated by speculative commodity markets, resulting in limited food intake among the world’s poorest communities, which in turn leads to increased malnutrition with all the consequences for ill-health and suffering that this entails.
For the complete article, please see Oxford Research Group.
