The Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (QHSR) was released by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on June 18, and it takes a hard look at the security risks of a changing climate.

Most significantly, climate change appears in the QHSR’s section on “Prevailing Challenges that Pose the Most Strategically Significant Risk” on page 28.  In that context, “natural hazards…with increasingly variable consequences due in part to drivers such as climate change and interdependent and aging infrastructure” shares the stage with other significant homeland security risks, including “the terrorist threat,” “cyber threats,” “biological concerns,” “nuclear terrorism,” and “transnational criminal organizations.”

Also of significance is the inclusion of climate change in the document’s “Potential Black Swans” list on page 29 (in other words, low-probability, high-impact risks). The QHSR identifies: “Abrupt impacts of climate change, such as drastic alterations in U.S. weather patterns and growing seasons or rapid opening of the Arctic” as one of only four such black swans, making it a very significant inclusion. Interestingly, one of the other black swans mentioned is “technology-driven changes to manufacturing processes, such as three-dimensional printing,” which though presenting potentially disruptive challenges to existing flows of information and goods, also offers an opportunity for enhancing climate resilience (as we detail in our briefer “The U.S. Military, 3D Printing and a Climate Secure Future).“

Lastly, the QHSR’s section on “The Strategic Environment,” highlights “Drivers of Change” that can present “threats to the Nation’s homeland security interests.” The QHSR highlights “natural disasters, pandemics and climate change” as one of six key over-arching drivers, including “the evolving terrorism threat,” “information and communications technology,” “interdependent and aging critical infrastructure systems and networks,” “flows of people and goods: increasing volume and speed,” and “budget drivers.” Under the heading of “natural disasters, pandemics and climate change” the document has the following to say on security risks that may arise from climate change dynamics ( and “associated trends”:)

For the complete article, please see Center for Climate and Security.